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In the past five years, there have been many discussions about the effects of this practice at that time. Not only that, but the reflection on the "4 trillion" large-scale economic stimulus has not yet ended. From 2012 onwards, a new round of investment boom has re-emerged.
Things have changed. On June 19, 2013, Premier Li Keqiang chaired the State Council executive meeting, pointing out that it supports the adjustment of excess capacity, and targeted M&A loans for enterprises integrating excess capacity. It is strictly forbidden to provide new projects for illegal construction projects with serious overcapacity. Increase the letter of credit.
Controversy "4 trillion 2.0 version"
What caused the current overcapacity, just the 4 trillion investment in 2008?
Recalling the big investment in 2008, during this period, the central government's investment in investment projects has accelerated, and the NDRC at all levels has quietly accelerated the approval of infrastructure investment projects. The investment focus represented by railways, highways and infrastructure has blossomed.
Under the slogan of “getting fast and shooting is heavyâ€, as of 2010, the national expressway mileage is about 74,000 kilometers, of which nearly one quarter is in 2008. It was later built.
However, in addition to the 2008 stimulus measures, by 2012, the continued investment is still relatively large. Our reporter found that from April 2012, Heilongjiang Fuyuan, Xinjiang Shihezi, Gansu Qingyang, Chongqing Jiangbei, etc. The airport construction project has been approved by the Basic Industry Division of the National Development and Reform Commission.
Subsequently, the EIA report of Inner Mongolia Alashan League Commuter Airport and Sichuan Aba Hongyuan Airport was also approved. The estimated investment scale is more than 60 billion yuan. In addition to the airport, the National Development and Reform Commission has also approved a number of hydropower projects.
At the State Council executive meeting held in May of the same year, emphasis was placed on continuing to introduce relevant policies and measures to support growth, including the implementation of key projects related to railways, energy conservation, agriculture, and western infrastructure in the 12th Five-Year Plan.
Although the authorities strongly deny the "4 trillion 2.0 version" argument, it is not difficult to find that although more clean energy projects have been approved, most of the approved projects are still concentrated in the fields of steel, infrastructure, etc. There is no significant difference in the types of projects invested in a round of four trillion investment.
On May 25, with the approval of the State Council, the National Development and Reform Commission has just formally approved the Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Base Project with a total investment of nearly 70 billion yuan. On the same day as the Zhanjiang Iron and Steel Project, the Guangxi Fangchenggang Steel Base Project was approved. The total investment of the two projects was nearly 1400. In addition, Shougang has also approved projects.
In fact, if the localities were still hungry for the project in 2009, the situation in 2012 has turned sharply. At this time, the problem of severe overcapacity has begun to appear, and the two leading industries of automobile and real estate are also in a downturn. Excessive capacity is unable to resolve, so that product prices continue to fall, profits will also decline, and corporate investment will decline.
The IMF's Country Assessment Report in 2012 pointed out that even before the 2008 crisis, China's capacity utilization rate was around 80%. A large-scale fiscal stimulus plan was launched during the economic crisis, which further reduced capacity utilization rate to only 60% in 2011.
Excessive solution
The local government's enthusiasm for GDP has led to large-scale redundant construction to a certain extent, and has become an important driver of overcapacity. The central government has always emphasized the elimination of backward production capacity to achieve industrial upgrading, and has to face the problem of overcapacity.
Careful observation, in recent years, the Central Economic Work Conference, the expression of capacity issues has also changed.
Before 2007, the “resolute elimination of backward production capacity†was cited as the introduction. In 2008, the financial crisis triggered a decline in external demand. While “effectively eliminating backward production capacityâ€, “suppressing excess capacity†in energy-saving emission reduction and low-carbon economy. The background is presented.
In 2010, the Central Economic Work Conference directly proposed “strictly controlling investment in overcapacity industries to prevent new low-level redundant constructionâ€. Although the resolution of overcapacity has been the focus of economic work, the production capacity has not been cut, but has made a big leap forward.
The macro research team of the Nisshin Securities Research Institute calculated according to the capital stock method. Since 2002, China's capacity utilization rate has been close to 80%. After the 2008 4 trillion economic stimulus plan and a series of economic support projects, starting from 2010, Capacity utilization decreased from 63.5% and 61.0% to 57.8% in 2012. By the first quarter of 2013, the capacity utilization data slipped to 54.7%.
After a round of strong capacity expansion, it is inevitable that China will inevitably launch a new round of capacity-recycling cycle in the short term.
At present, the domestic overcapacity areas are mainly concentrated in the traditional heavy chemical industry, such as steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, chemical, flat glass and other industries.
On June 19, Li Keqiang held a meeting to point out that it would support the adjustment of excess capacity, and to conduct M&A loans for enterprises that integrate excess capacity. It is strictly forbidden to provide new credit for illegal construction projects with serious overcapacity.
Obviously, this is a relatively effective way.
Been to the remaining capacity: pain but necessary
Abstract Since 2008, under the ten measures of further expanding domestic demand and promoting economic growth, China's infrastructure has been extensively started, including infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges and airports. For the place, this is tantamount to the "starting gun &r...
Since 2008, under the ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, China's infrastructure has started on a large scale, including infrastructure projects including roads, bridges and airports. For the place, this is tantamount to the "starting gun" of the project.