Demand support lacks steel or weak and difficult to change

After rebounding on the steel market last Friday, the rally rose by 86 yuan and returned to the 3850 mark. The market sentiment may be boosted positively. After all, there has been no good news stimulus. The steel price has fallen into a long period of decline. It will inevitably spread pessimistic sentiment. . Although the rebound of this ** rises, it still cannot change the pattern of weak decline in building materials.

According to the measured data, as of the 15th, the average price of rebar in the 25 major markets nationwide has fallen. The average price of large-scale city Φ25mm secondary rebar is 3,670 yuan, which is 89 yuan less than the same period of last week. The average price of Φ25mm tertiary rebar is 3,711 yuan, down 110 yuan per week; the average price of Φ6.5mm high-line is 3635 yuan. Zhou fell 72 yuan. At present, the downstream demand has not seen any substantial improvement. Higher output has pushed up market inventories, which has led to a continued drop in spot prices.

The data shows that in the first two months, China's crude steel output was 125.452 million tons, an increase of 10.6% year-on-year; average daily average crude steel production was 2.212 million tons, the highest in the same period in history. The current domestic supply and demand side of the steel market continues to show signs of weakness, indicating that the current domestic steel market supply pressure is really huge.

And the social inventory has reached new heights, the latest statistics show that: As of March 15, the five main steel products in the country's major market share of 22.058 million tons, an increase of 19.2 million tons the previous week, rising for 13 weeks. The increase in inventories is still dominated by rebar and wire rods, with rebar stocks increasing for sixteen consecutive weeks. Huge supply pressure, pressure on the spot market is a bit breathless.

With regard to downstream demand, after the state's five rules came out, real estate was again the hottest topic in the entire society. After the end of yesterday's election, the minister of the Ministry of Housing and Construction stated that 20% of real estate transaction taxes must be firmly implemented. The real estate market will face a new round of regulation, and the building materials market will be under pressure. The market mentality is still gloomy.

It is also worth noting that construction steel manufacturers are forced to lower their factory prices in mid-March. Shagang has reduced its rebar by 250 yuan/ton, and wire rods and discs have been reduced by 100 yuan/ton respectively; Yonggang has rebars. Down 180 yuan/ton, wire rod down 130 yuan/ton, disk screw down 100 yuan/ton; Zhongtian Steel lowered rebar by 200 yuan/ton, high-line by 30 yuan/ton, disk screw by 50 yuan/ton, etc. Building material manufacturers have judged that the rebar price trend is downward, and the price can hardly rise for a while.

In general, for the current steel market, it is difficult to be optimistic and whether the steel market will eventually rise will still be attributed to the supply and demand relationship. High inventory is still the main problem that the market needs to face. The recovery of demand still needs to wait and see. Therefore, in the short term, the building materials market may still be weak and difficult to change.