Plastics are still looking forward after the Spring Festival rally

Recently, even the plastic 1105 contract has been adjusted downwards for several consecutive trading days. In the short term, this turbulent trend will continue and the intraday differences will be greater, and they will continue to seek short-term support. For Liansu, it is highly probable that the trading day before the Spring Festival will be under stress, but should not neglect the role of petrochemical manufacturers in supporting the city, ploughing and stocking, and cost-boosting factors. If there is no sudden event, short-term will After finishing the Spring Festival under the shock, it will remain strong and remain cautiously optimistic.

At present, the international crude oil price trend is strong. Although US crude oil prices have encountered relatively strong pressure at the first line of 92 US dollars, over the long term, breaking through this point is only a matter of time. The United States released a number of economic data on January 4 better than expected, the US economic fundamentals improved, the quantitative easing of monetary policy will continue in the future. There is little room for crude oil to fall in the macroeconomic background of sustained economic growth.

The latest monthly report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on the 11th raised the forecast for global oil day 2011 by 20,000 barrels to 145 million barrels, and the global daily demand will increase to 88.02 million barrels, and it is estimated that the US crude oil in 2011 will be The price will be $93 per barrel, up $14 from last year, and will rise to $99 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012. The recovery of fundamentals, coupled with the recent closure of Alaska's oil pipeline due to leakage, has contributed to the rise in international oil prices. In recent months, the international crude oil price increase has exceeded 10%. EIA expects the average US crude oil price this year will be 93 US dollars per barrel, up 14 US dollars from last year, and will rise to 99 US dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2012.

From the end of 2010 to the beginning of 2011, some petrochemical enterprises have raised the LLDPE ex-factory price to varying degrees, ranging from RMB 200-400 per ton. Ex-factory price increases, there is a certain support for LLDPE costs. As petrochemicals raised their prices, and ** prices remained high, the downstream traders also adjusted their prices. In the last two weeks, the China Plastics Price Index was gradually rising. The increase in the spot price supports the price support.

In the downstream demand of LLDPE, film consumption accounts for 80% of the total, mainly including packaging film and agricultural film. LLDPE is a basic raw material for plastics. The price of polyolefin has risen too fast since the second half of 2010, causing tight funding. Downstream plastic products companies have insufficient stocks of raw materials. The excessive increase in the price of polyolefins has caused the price of downstream plastic products to rise too fast, resulting in a lack of demand for finished products of film plastics. However, after the Spring Festival, the major agricultural provinces north of the Yangtze River began spring plowing, and the rigid demand for agricultural films will be released. Coupled with the winter weather in the northern part of this year, the spring, the spring crop filming demand stimulation is still expected to continue to climb. In addition, domestic freezing weather is also expected to further boost the demand for agricultural films, which in turn will increase LLDPE's spot demand and drive up prices.