Analysis of supply and demand, import, export and development trends of China's machine tool industry and sub-sectors in 2018

I. Overview of the machine tool industry

A machine tool is a machine that processes blanks or workpieces of metal or other materials to achieve the required geometry, dimensional accuracy, and surface quality. Machine tools are generally divided into metal cutting machines, forging machines, foundry machinery, and woodworking machinery.

The machine tool is the basis of the equipment manufacturing industry and the basic production equipment of the machinery industry. Its variety, quality and processing efficiency directly affect the production technology level and economic benefits of other mechanical products. Therefore, the modernization level and scale of the machine tool industry, as well as the quantity and quality of the machine tools owned, are one of the important indicators of a country's industrial development.

The upstream industry of the machine tool industry includes mechanical structural parts, electrical equipment, abrasives, computer control and many other supporting industries. The downstream industries include steel, non-ferrous metal deep processing, etc., and metal rolled products (such as metal plates and metal strips) produced by downstream industries. Metal foil) is widely used in many fields of national economy such as machinery and equipment, automobile industry, shipbuilding industry, home appliance industry, power equipment, high-speed rail locomotive, construction, aerospace, textile and paper industry.

Source: Huajing Industrial Research Institute

Second, China's machine tool industry and market segment analysis

1. Analysis of supply and demand in the machine tool industry

China is the largest producer and consumer in the global machine tool market and an important player in the global machine tool market. According to German machine tool manufacturer (VDW) data, the main consumer demand for the world machine tool market in 2016 was 67.6 billion euros, and China's consumption accounted for 31.9%, which is the world's largest machine tool consumer market, while the United States, Germany, Japan, and Italy total It has divided about 1/3 of the consumer market; in 2016, the world machine tool market produced output value of 67.857 billion euros, China, Germany, Japan, the United States, and Italy ranked in the top five, of which China's output accounted for 25.16%.

According to the statistics of China Machine Tool Industry Association, from 2015 to 2017, China's machine tool market consumption totaled 27.5 billion US dollars, 27.5 billion US dollars, 30 billion US dollars, China's total machine tool output was 22.1 billion US dollars, 22.9 billion US dollars, 24.5 billion Dollar. After the stabilization of the machine tool market in 2016, the domestic machine tool industry was gradually better by the smart manufacturing demand in the downstream market in 2017.

Source: Huajing Industrial Research Institute

2. Analysis of supply and demand in sub-sectors

According to the statistics of China Machine Tool Industry Association, in 2016 and 2017, the output of China's metal cutting machine tools was about 12.2 billion US dollars and 13.35 billion US dollars. The output value in 2017 increased by 9.43% compared with the same period of last year; the corresponding output in the same period was 783,200 units. With 643,300 units, production in 2017 decreased by 17.88% from the same period of the previous year. The output value of metal cutting machine tools decreased while the output value increased, which means that China's metal cutting machine tools have improved in product performance, grade and price. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 131,000 units of metal cutting machine tools were produced in January-March 2018, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%. In recent years, with the development of China's industrial structure and the global economic recovery, the demand for metal cutting machine tools has further increased. In 2017, the consumption of metal cutting machine tools in China was US$ 18.4 billion, up 7.8% year-on-year; exports were US$ 2.18 billion, up year-on-year. 13.2%; imports were 7.23 billion US dollars, an increase of 18.4%.

Source: Huajing Industrial Research Institute

In 2016, the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China was 250,000 units, an increase of 5.07% year-on-year. It is estimated that the output of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China will reach 267,000 units in 2018, and the compound annual growth rate will be 3.47% in 2018-2022. The output of CNC metal cutting machine tools in China will reach 306,000 units. The output of CNC metal cutting machine tools continues to rise. In the future, China's metal cutting machine tools will continue to grow steadily while achieving high-speed precision and intelligence in products.

Third, China's machine tool industry import and export analysis

In the world machine tool industry, Japan and Germany have always occupied the top two of the world's machine tool output, but the financial crisis in 2008 led to a sluggish downstream demand, which has a major adverse impact on the machine tool industry in both countries. Benefiting from the continuous growth of China's economic development and fixed asset investment, China's machine tool industry has been relatively less affected by the financial crisis. The output value of the machine tool industry has leapt to the top in the world since 2009, and has maintained its position as the world's No. 1 machine tool producer.

China's machine tool market presents a situation of simultaneous fluctuations in import and export. On the one hand, domestic machine tool enterprises fill the market gap through low-end machine tools and open up the international market; on the other hand, high-end precision machine tools still have to rely on imports. In 2017, China's machine tool exports totaled 3.29 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.4%; machine tool imports totaled 8.74 billion US dollars, an increase of 16.3%. Although the total import volume of machine tools has increased, the proportion of imported machine tools in the total size of the domestic machine tool market has dropped from 41.4% in 2012 to 29.16% in 2017, indicating that domestic enterprises are striving to develop toward high-end technology and alternative imports, and gradually reduce China. Dependence on foreign high-end machine tools.

Source: China Customs

Fourth, the development trend of the machine tool industry

In recent years, China's machine tool industry has progressed from the previous simplification, low numerical control degree, low efficiency to a full range of multiple varieties, high precision and intelligence, and the product structure adjustment has made great progress. Specifically, the future development trend of China's roll grinder industry is as follows:

1, precision and efficiency

The upgrading and transformation of machinery, automobile industry, shipbuilding industry, household appliances, electric equipment, high-speed rail locomotives and other industries has created an urgent need for quality, performance, precision and stability of key basic components, and grinding in the production process. The requirements of the processing technology are constantly improving. As one of the important production equipments for the mechanical manufacturing industry, the CNC grinding machine is developing in the direction of stability, high efficiency and high precision.

2. Intelligent manufacturing and information technology

Automation and intelligence will help improve the unmanned operation level of equipment, reduce the labor intensity of operators, improve system reliability, and improve processing efficiency. Intelligent technology will be more conducive to improving the reliability and safety of equipment based on automation technology. It is reflected in the system's self-learning ability. According to different working conditions and grinding requirements, it automatically generates the best grinding through big data analysis. Cutting process parameters and monitoring indicators, automatic iteration and optimization process in the grinding process, automatic programming and simplified operation, intelligent diagnosis and intelligent monitoring.

3, flexible integration

Flexible technology is one of the main means for the manufacturing industry to adapt to dynamic market demand and rapid product update. It is beneficial to improve the flexibility of equipment application. The focus is on improving the reliability of the system, focusing on the development from single machine to network integrated manufacturing system. development of. At the same time, the integration of different technologies, the combination of different design schemes, and the flexible application of the public platform of mechanical structure will bring the advantages of integrated innovation and speed up product update. At present, some middle and high-end manufacturers in the domestic roll grinder industry have begun to establish flexible production lines for intelligent grinding equipment to meet the requirements of flexible integration of the industry.

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