Wuxi Winsun Automation Instrument Co., Ltd , https://www.jswxwinsun.com
The demand for new energy vehicles is less than expected . The average price of electrolytic cobalt is 60.25 million yuan/ton, which is down 65,200 yuan/ton from the previous high of April 18, a decrease of 9.76%. Crazy growth of more than a year of cobalt prices, ushered in the "quick brakes" in May. According to data from the business community, the price of cobalt fluctuated in May. On May 31, the price of metallic cobalt fell to 607,000 yuan/ton, down 6.73% from the beginning of May. The price of cobalt remained volatile, but it was up 66% from the same period last year. Analysts pointed out that cobalt ore production rose sharply in January-April, and Congo's gold and cobalt production rose by 34.4% year-on-year. The sharp increase in supply was negative for cobalt prices. On the demand side, new energy vehicles performed well, but were lower than market expectations. It is expected that the decline in the market will not be too high, mainly based on shock adjustment. According to Wind data, the cobalt index has fallen from the high of 1865.78 points on May 23 to the 1619.11 points closed on June 6, and fell more than 13% in less than a month. At present, 97% of China's cobalt needs to rely on foreign countries, and it is derived from an unstable country such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The resources on the supply side are concentrated and unstable, and the demand side is increasing. The price of cobalt has been rising since last year. In March 2018, the total import volume of cobalt raw materials in China was 4911 metal tons, up 35.6% from the previous month and up 14.1% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2018, China imported 14,000 tons of cobalt raw materials, up 17% from the fourth quarter of 2017. Huatai Securities pointed out that mining of mineral resources is uncertain, and it is not appropriate to overestimate the release rhythm of overseas lithium mines and domestic salt lakes. The general new mine construction period is 18 months, and it is expected that the second quarter of 2019 will start mass production. The progress of the production of the domestic spodumene mine in Sichuan is significantly lower than expected, and it is expected that there will be a large increase in 2019. On the demand side, new energy vehicles are currently performing well, but below market expectations. According to the data, in the first four months of 2018, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 430,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 52%. Among them, China's sales reached nearly 200,000 units, an increase of 131%. The agency believes that after the subsidy policy is further degraded in 2018, the relevant policies for new energy vehicles are still being adjusted, the threshold is increasing, some new energy vehicles will be kicked out of the vehicle purchase tax, and the policy dividend will continue to tighten. The performance of new energy vehicles may decline. Xu Aidong, secretary-general of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Cobalt Industry Branch, said in an interview that in 2018, due to subsidies, large buses such as buses and logistics vehicles use lithium iron phosphate, while high-end electric passenger cars are required. Some fuel vehicles compete, for the purpose of improving the cruising range, they will definitely choose the ternary battery, and the ternary battery needs to use cobalt. It is expected to usher in the replenishment market as the two leading companies in the A-share cobalt industry. Huayou Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt have different stock prices since this year. Huayou Cobalt has gained 30.21% year-to-date, while Hanrui Cobalt fell 9.97% during the same period. According to the first quarter report released by Huayou Cobalt, the operating income in the first quarter of 2018 was 3.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.36%; the net profit was 850 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 237.96%. Huayou Cobalt has previously stated that the production and sales of cobalt and ternary precursor products have increased, and the main products continue to maintain high prices. It is expected that the company's accumulated net profit to the end of the next reporting period will increase significantly compared with the same period of the previous year. In contrast, Hanrui Co., Ltd. has experienced rapid growth in the same period. The first quarter of this year showed that the company achieved revenue of 737 million yuan and net profit of 255 million yuan, up 219% and 413% respectively. Hanrui Cobalt said that the profit growth during the reporting period was mainly due to the increase in sales volume of cobalt and copper. For the future trend of cobalt prices, Huatai Securities expects that the short-term supply and demand will be loose, the industry chain price reduction and reshuffle and low inventory positive and negative effects will be offset, and the price will stabilize. In 2019, the vigorous development of new energy vehicle dual-integration system and ternary energy storage will inevitably lead to the rapid development of lithium-cobalt. The industry expects that the future increase of cobalt-lithium is being locked in by the industry giants, and may even appear to be in short supply. After the subsidy expires in June, once the demand continues to maintain high growth, the replenishment market will push the price of cobalt lithium up.
Cobalt price "quick brake" is expected to usher in the new low in the year
Under the new PV policy, the leading stocks of photovoltaics suffered successive setbacks. The new energy battery and the whole vehicle industry, which also enjoyed government subsidies, were lying down and the stock price fell. Among them, the price of metallic cobalt, one of the most critical raw materials for power batteries, has hit a new low in the year. However, Huatai Securities expects that once the demand continues to maintain high growth, the price of cobalt lithium is expected to usher in the market.