Zhang Ming: The chemical market entered the downward adjustment period

A total of 46 kinds of goods rose in the chemical sector in the March/June 2013 commodity price increase, including 4 kinds of goods that rose more than 5%, accounting for 3.8% of the monitored goods; the top 3 products were Hydrogen peroxide (9.56%), ** (7.14%), ** (7.10%).

There were 58 kinds of commodities with a month-on-month decline, and 24 kinds of products with a decrease of more than 5%, which accounted for 22.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the products with the first 3 products decreased by butadiene (-25.68%) and crude benzene (- 16.40%), coked benzene (-13.06%).

The monthly average increase or decrease is -1.6%.

In March, the domestic chemical market changed its upward trend in the previous two months, and the number of declining products soared. Among the 68 representative chemical products monitored by the business community, Yindie products increased from 24 in February to 40, with the largest drop. It also soared from -5.68% to -16.40%. In March 2013, the business community BCI index was -0.57, with an average increase of -2.6%, reflecting that the manufacturing economy contracted from the previous month and the economy had downward risks. This is more prominent in the chemical industry.

Zhang Ming, head of the chemical branch of the business club, believes that the domestic chemical market has entered a new round of downward adjustment process since March. The lack of terminal demand has become the main factor in promoting the overall downturn of the cost cycle. The specific analysis is:

I. International crude oil continued to slump in the mid-late, resulting in weak cost support for downstream petrochemical products. Representative products: **, paraxylene, ortho-xylene, etc., fell sharply from international to domestic prices. Although the price of crude oil has been greatly boosted at the end of the month, market participants are generally not optimistic about the future trend.

Second, the weak international market has a strong influence on the domestic market. In March, the outer disk negatively spread. The PX arrival price fell from 1,700 USD/ton at the beginning of the month to 1,400 USD/ton at the end of the month. The OX arrival price fell from 1,620 USD/ton at the beginning of the month to the end of the month. The US$1480/tonne, **outer disk price also fell 33 cents/gallon this month, and the price of potassium chloride to Hong Kong was also lower than Sinochem's contract price. It can be said that from organic products to inorganic products, the external disk was weak this month. Third, sluggish demand has spread throughout the industry this month. Only a small number of products such as propylene, hydrogen peroxide, and DMF have risen slightly due to downstream demand. Fourth, the weakening effect of market speculation, TDI, polysilicon rose this month mainly due to manufacturers speculation, other products simply use speculation has no much effect.

For the market, Zhang Ming believes that the domestic chemical market is in a downward phase. Under the dual influence of weak international and domestic demand and weak cost support, there is little hope for overall recovery. However, the paper and printing and dyeing industries have entered the industry peak season. The pull-up effect of upstream auxiliaries should not be underestimated, which is a highlight of the upward trend. It is expected that the overall recovery of the chemical industry will need to wait until the end of May and the peak season for the procurement of organic products. At the end of April, the early collection of some products will raise energy or Not enough.