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Investigation and analysis of solar photovoltaic market in early July 2011
Components and consumables companies experienced a low tide in May and June, but since July, the general reaction shipments have started to improve significantly. In the general reaction, the shipments declined significantly in May-June, and the price of the products dropped sharply. However, sales in the middle and late June and July have resumed. For example, the sales volume of the welding rods in the components is about 100 tons in March-April, the sales volume in May is reduced to 70 tons, the sales volume in June is 8-90 tons, and the sales volume in July is expected to be 100-120 tons. To a certain extent, it is a leading indicator of the industry's prosperity, indicating that the PV market has begun to improve significantly. The component companies reacted in June because of the relatively high inventory and the production line was discontinued. At present, the inventory has been reduced to a low level and the whole line is started. Of course, the European port inventory is still high, and the components as a whole are still in the process of destocking. From the perspective of the terminal market, the German market is expected to install 2GW in the first half of the year. The current credit situation is good. It is expected that the installation demand will be strong in the third quarter. The annual demand is expected to be around 8GW. The Italian market is relatively tight, and the US market generally responds better than the demand. expected. The prices of photovoltaic products have experienced a deep decline, and it is generally reported that prices will not be able to improve in the short term. After the price of components has fallen sharply in the previous period, the current mainstream price of components is 0.95 Euro/W. At present, the number of European enquiries has increased significantly, but the price of mainstream intent discs is as low as 0.85 Euro/W, both sides are testing their respective bottom lines. As Europe is also very aware of China's current overcapacity, global production capacity of 50GW and production demand of 25-30GW, most of the researchers believe that the component price is difficult to rebound significantly, polysilicon prices also believe that there is a certain false high, and next year polysilicon prices may Dropped to $45/kg. The price of cutting blades has also dropped from 2.8-2.9 million/ton at the beginning of the year to the current 24,000/ton. The general reaction price has reached a low point, but because the inventory of individual cutting materials is still high, with the industry picking up, the price of cutting edge It is difficult to improve. Correspondingly, the price of silicon carbide, which accounts for 80% of raw materials, has also fallen sharply, from 11,000 yuan/ton to 8,000 yuan/ton. In addition, this year's single crystal is relatively popular, and the price is relatively strong. The profit-making period of the photovoltaic industry has passed, and the industrial concentration has been further improved. The turning point of the next development is the parity online. The photovoltaic industry has been rotating in great sadness and great joy in the past few years, and there is an excellent opportunity for crazy profits. However, by the time the current global production capacity is as high as 50 GW, most of the respondents believe that the profit period of the photovoltaic industry has passed, and the profitability of the photovoltaic industry will return to the profit level of the traditional manufacturing industry. At present, orders from large enterprises are gradually increasing, basically they are close to full production, while small enterprises are faced with the embarrassment of eating up and down. It is expected that small enterprises will be out of the overcapacity of the industry, and the industrial concentration will be further improved. It is expected that the price of components will continue to drop to US$1/W, and some regions may have the possibility of user-level Internet access. When the parity online area reaches a certain level, it will be the turning point of the next development of the PV industry. It is expected that there will be an inflection point in the next two or three years. . Diamond cutting process, single crystal ingot and N-type silicon wafer process are worthy of close tracking, in line with the future development direction. Diamond cutting process, there are still scratches on the surface, suitable for cutting single crystal is not suitable for cutting polycrystalline, the cost is high, etc., but the diamond cutting process may be the mainstream direction in the future, especially in Japan because the traditional cutting blade is only environmentally friendly. Can rely on imports, diamond cutting process is the most popular in Japan, has begun trial. Single crystal ingots are the main products of Jingao. N-type silicon wafers are also the way for Yingli and other brand enterprises to seek to improve conversion efficiency. Foreign N-type silicon wafers have relatively more applications, and it is likely to develop in this direction in China. In the case where the proportion of polysilicon costs is getting lower and lower, single crystal ingots and N-type silicon wafers improve conversion efficiency and are an effective way to reduce unit cost.