Daily Comment: Steel costs are gradually rising, steel prices are still easy to rise and fall

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Today's point of view

Today, black commodity futures were mixed, with rebar, hot coil and iron ore contracts closing down, and double-focus contracts closing up. Among them, rebar contracts were sharply lightened, and iron ore contracts were also lighter. However, from the technical indicators, the price has not yet fallen below the key support level, the trend of the disk remains to be seen, and it is not recommended to short before there is no clear signal. In terms of spot, due to the volume of yesterday's trading volume, the price of most varieties has risen today, but the transaction is weak after the increase, but the short-term supply is still difficult to rebound significantly. The difference between supply and demand still exists. With the gradual rise of market costs, the price action can also be Will gradually weaken, short-term prices are still easy to rise and fall.

Macro hotspot

1. [Domestic commodity futures closed at the same time, rice futures led the decline] Manganese silicon, coke, PTA closed up more than 2%, Zheng alcohol, coking coal, glass, Shanghai aluminum rose more than 1%, asphalt, Shanghai copper, plastics, crude oil, Zheng cotton, Shanghai lead, ferrosilicon, cotton yarn, Zheng cotton, iron ore, apple, Shanghai zinc, etc. closed up. Indica and early rice closed down, late rice fell more than 2%, eggs fell 1.6%, rubber, Shanghai tin, thread, hot coil, Zhengyou, corn, sugar, Shanghai silver, Shanghai nickel, soybean meal, rapeseed, Shanghai gold, etc. closed down .

2, [Shanghai stock index fluctuated at a high level in the afternoon, and the stocks of the stocks rose in a collective]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2905.56 points, up 1.61%, with a turnover of 228.7 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9465.80 points, up 1.63%, with a turnover of 264.1 billion.

The GEM closed at 1629.61 points, up 0.53%, with a turnover of 83.3 billion.

3. [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Accelerate the implementation of the opening-up policy of the automobile and aircraft industries] Huang Libin, deputy director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the party’s 19th National Congress will be conscientiously implemented to promote high-quality development, build a modern economic system, and accelerate the construction of a manufacturing power. Major strategic deployment, focus on the implementation of key objectives and tasks, further deepen reform and innovation, follow the decisive role of market allocation of resources, better play the role of government, improve relevant policies, protect intellectual property rights, encourage entrepreneurship, and maintain A market environment that is fair and competitive. Accelerate the implementation of the opening-up policy of the automobile, shipbuilding, aircraft and other industries, adhere to the principle of equal cooperation between domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, create a more attractive investment environment, deepen dialogue and exchanges with other countries, and promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry under open conditions.

4. [Jilin Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection Commission initiated the investigation and investigation of the corruption of Changchun Changsheng Biological Vaccine Case] ​​At present, the Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection has taken three measures to speed up the work: First, it reflects Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and its main responsibility Human problem clues and petition reports are sorted and dispatched. The second is to instruct the discipline inspection team of the Food and Drug Administration in the province and the supervisory committee of the Changchun Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection to clarify the responsibilities on the basis of finding out the facts, and to seriously investigate and punish the relevant responsible persons of the provincial food and drug supervision departments for dereliction of duty and responsibility. The third is to set up a responsible investigation team to investigate and investigate the possible corruption problems in the process of restructuring, production and operation of Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology Co., Ltd.

Market today

Raw material

Billet: The national billet market price has been slightly higher. Shandong and Shanxi steel billets rose 10 yuan / ton, Jiangsu steel billets rose 20 yuan / ton, Tangshan billet temporarily stabilized. Today, the steel market is slowing down, steel billet can be traded, and the price of downstream finished products is rising steadily. Tangshan billet can be sold directly. The stock of 3810-3820 is in stock and the tax is out of stock. The steel futures are down, and the downstream finished products are partially The transaction was general and the overall transaction was weak.

Domestic mines: Some market prices in the main domestic production areas have been temporarily stabilized. Specifically, North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory 660-670 yuan / ton, Qianxi 66% dry-based tax-included cash out 650-660 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 670-680 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 665-675 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 580 tons; Zhangping 63.5% vanadium titanium powder dry basis tax-containing cash factory 519 yuan / ton; 66% (alkali) of the Xingxing Bureau is now executed 610 / ton

Imported mines: Early traders' quotations were basically stable compared with yesterday, and a few merchants raised their prices by 3~5 yuan/ton. Very few merchants lowered low-grade powder mines and non-mainstream mines by 5 yuan/ton; Shandong Port PB powder mainstream offer 465~ 470 yuan / ton, Tangshan port PB powder mainstream offer 475 yuan / ton, Tianjin port PB powder mainstream offer 495 ~ 500 yuan / ton. Today's market enquiries have declined slightly, or due to the strengthening of Tangshan's limited production and the recent heavy rains in the northern region. As of press time, the transaction was poor. The following are some transactions: Caofeidian Port: Jinbuba Powder 425; Jingtang Port: PB powder 470, PB block 630; Huanghua Port: PB powder 500, Jinbuba powder 458/460; Qingdao Port: Jinbuba powder 424; Rizhao Port: Jinbuba Powder 425, Luobu River Powder 330, PB Powder 465; Laoshan Port: Mike Powder 453; Jiangne ​​Port: PB Powder 490. (Unit: RMB / ton)

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices rose slightly. According to the specific price, the average price of 25 major cities nationwide was 4,232 yuan/ton, which was 9 yuan/ton higher than that of the previous trading day. The prices in South China, Central China, Northeast China and Southwest China continued to rise; East China, North China and Northwest China were affected. Demand impact, prices rise and fall. At present, the overall inventory pressure of the merchants is not large, so the business mentality is still affected by the poor trend of the period screw, and the price is still relatively firm. From the market feedback, demand is still the most critical driver, especially in East China and other regions. In the case of heavy volume yesterday, today's demand is not performing well, and the price increase is weak, while demand in South China and Central China is in demand. In the case of acceptable, the price maintains a strong performance. On the whole, under the support of short-term low inventory and high cost, it is expected that the market price will be stable and moderately strong tomorrow.

Hot-rolled coil: Today, the hot rolling price of 24 major cities in the country is consolidating. The average price of 3.0 hot-rolled coils is 4318 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils is 4261. Yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the early morning, merchants held a wait-and-see attitude, market quotations remained stable, and individual markets fluctuated slightly. However, with the volatility of the afternoon futures, the market pessimism increased, and the market transactions were relatively sluggish, and some market prices were slightly loose. However, the current market inventory is relatively low, coupled with the support of cost, businesses are not willing to sell too low. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,740 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Plate: Today's domestic plate market price consolidation, the average price of 20mm medium and heavy plate in 23 major cities nationwide is 4355 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. At present, demand is in the off-season, end-user procurement enthusiasm is not high, and market transactions are generally weak. However, the market inventory resources are relatively small, and the steel mills have a strong willingness to price, and the cost has certain support for the price. In the short term, the market is in a dilemma. In addition, the price of Tangshan billet market remained stable today, and the current price of carbon billet is 3,740 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate tomorrow.

Cold-rolled coils: Today's national cold-rolled prices are rising and falling. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4727 yuan / ton, up 2 yuan / ton from the previous working day. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil offer 4660 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm Angang coil offer 4670 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4550 yuan / ton. In terms of market: Today's black commodity futures fell slightly, Shanghai was affected by this market mentality, down 10 yuan / ton; Tianjin area due to low inventory, recent business mentality is strong, today continue to increase 10 / ton; other regions hold steady operation . Overall, the current demand is in the off-season and more often accompanied by high temperature and rainy weather, the merchants are not well shipped and the market wait-and-see attitude is strong. It is expected that the cold spot market price will continue to fluctuate and stabilize tomorrow.

Section steel: Today, the domestic steel market price has been adjusted in a narrow range, and the overall transaction has weakened. Specifically, the Tangshan market was generally consolidated in the early session, and some of the high prices in the market fell back. Due to the weather, the overall transaction was obviously blocked. At present, the steel mills have basically resumed production. Inventories and operating rates have risen, but downstream demand has not seen a significant improvement. Trade and demand are on demand, with a cautious wait-and-see attitude; prices in East China have consolidated and some cities have risen by RMB 10-20/ton. In view of the current strong price of billet, and the ex-factory price of steel enterprises also maintains a firm and bullish attitude, the cost is difficult to loosen; the mainstream price in the South China market continues to be stable, and some of the low-cost resource prices are moving closer to the high level. Different resources, the recent H-beam prices are more chaotic, high and low price difference; comprehensively, due to the high price of steel enterprises, the short-term market has support, it is expected that tomorrow's profile market will continue to hold steady.

Steel pipes: On the 24th, domestic steel pipe prices were mainly stable, and individual cities were slightly raised. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 4396 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of galvanized pipe 4 inch 3.75mm is 5113 yuan/ton, which is higher than the previous trading day. 6 yuan / ton; seamless pipe 108 * 405mm national average price 5259 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day price. Raw materials: On the 24th, Tangshan Ruifeng Steel was stable, 335-345 reported 3950, 610-635 reported 4100, 730-765 reported 4140, including tax ex-factory. On the 24th, Shandong hot-rolled tube billet temporarily stabilized and waited. The mainstream price of Φ75-130 steel mill with direct tax included: Luli 4150, Jiang Xin 4150, Sande 4150, Handan Iron and Steel 4170. On the 24th, Jiangsu hot-rolled tube billet temporarily stabilized, 20# Huaigang 4490 Zhongtian 4410 Longteng 4380 Changqiang 4360 East 4320, the above cash from the price increase. Pipe factory: welded pipe: Today's mainstream pipe factory ex-factory price has not changed. Seamless pipe: The ex-factory price of Linyi seamless pipe is temporarily stabilized. The base price of hot rolling mill in Linyi mainstream pipe factory is 4850 yuan/ton, and the base price of cold drawing is 5150 yuan/ton. On the market side: domestic prices have generally stabilized today, and actual transactions have been weak. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the prices of raw material steel strips were stable, and the downstream demand performance was weak. The prices of pipe manufacturers and market traders were mostly stable. The price increase in individual cities is because the previous sales price is close to the cost price, and the loss is not up, and the merchant is forced to raise the price slightly. It is expected that the prices of domestic welded pipes and galvanized pipes will fluctuate within a narrow range. Seamless pipe: In the near future, the price of pipe billet will not change temporarily, and the pipe plant will operate smoothly. According to the feedback from the merchants, the downstream demand is generally low, the transaction has been tepid, the business mentality is slightly exhausted, the stock is carefully prepared, and the inventory is kept at a normal low level. Level. It is expected that the price of domestic seamless pipes will be stable in the short term.

Futures: Today, the domestic black commodity trend is different, and the price is mixed. Among them, the double-focus is relatively strong, slightly rising, the finished product is weak, slightly falling, the iron ore is stable, the overall market shrinks, the main fund Slopped out. Specifically: Today's finished product futures opened higher and lower, with the main contract long after the bulls pulled up, the disk was steadily lower and the performance was sluggish; the performance of the double coke was strong, and the volatility rose all the way. With the resumption of production in Xuzhou and other regions The expectation of market supply increase has begun to appear gradually. The disk profit has narrowed significantly today. In the short term, the market resources are still in short supply, the inventory is still low, and the space for large decline is limited. The above recommendations are recommended. Pay attention to the position.


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