Daily Comment: Steel market is coming from the off-season, steel prices are falling, no suspense

Today's hot spot

Today, the major domestic steel products have been weaker and weaker. Although the decline is limited, the performance of confidence is still insufficient. On the whole, the traditional off-season is coming, the market is in a hot and rainy weather, and the demand side will continue to be in a weak state. Actually, the actual transaction has not been relatively satisfactory today and at the beginning of the month. The data also showed that the manufacturing PMI index fell slightly in June, and the turning point of the economy began to appear. In addition, from the perspective of fundamentals, Shagang's July screw policy was released on a flat basis, and the cost support also entered the overdraft phase. In summary, the contradiction between supply and demand is highlighted, and steel prices are expected to remain weak, with caution in operation.

Macro hotspot

1. [Black futures closed lower, coke closed down 2.5%] Coking coal, iron ore, ferrosilicon, Shanghai lead, apple, hot coil, Shanghai aluminum, Zheng coal, white sugar fell more than 1%, Shanghai nickel, manganese silicon, Eggs, rubber, thread, Shanghai zinc, Shanghai copper, cotton yarn, Zheng cotton, asphalt, etc. closed down. Vegetable oysters closed up 2.8%, soybean meal, crude oil rose more than 1%, Shanghai tin, Zheng alcohol, palm, plastic, Shanghai gold, glass, Shanghai silver, corn, etc. closed up.

2, [weights fell sharply, the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 fell 3.8%, real estate, insurance fell first]

The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2775.56 points, down 2.52%, with a turnover of 147.56 billion.

The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9179.8 points, down 2.13%, with a turnover of 210.08 billion.

The GEM closed at 1588.37 points, down 1.14%, with a turnover of 75.2 billion.

3. [Caixin Manufacturing PMI Comments: Under the background of the escalation of Sino-US trade conflicts, the export situation is more severe] In June, China's manufacturing output and total new orders grew at a moderate rate. Among them, the output growth rate rose to the highest in four months, but affected by the sluggish demand in overseas markets, the new export order index was in the contraction zone for three consecutive months, setting a new low in the year in June. Zhong Zhengsheng, chairman and chief economist of Caixin Research Institute, said that this reflects the increasingly serious export situation in the context of the escalation of Sino-US trade conflicts. Zhong Zhengsheng said that in June, Caixin China's manufacturing PMI was still in a good economic climate, but the pressure of rising prices, increased exports, weak employment, destocking, and poor capital turnover all put pressure on the manufacturing boom. .

4. [China Government Network: China's monetary policy will remain neutral and moderately moderate] The article stated that the second-quarter regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee emphasized the comprehensive use of multiple monetary policy tools to grasp the strength and rhythm of structural de-leveraging. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the relevant statement of the central bank at that time was “effectively controlling the macro leverage ratio”. The market generally expects that monetary policy will pay more attention to structural adjustment and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. Ren Zeping believes that in the second half of the year, as the macro leverage ratio stabilizes and the downward pressure on the economy does not decrease, the policy orientation will gradually shift from comprehensive tightening to structural adjustment.

Market today

Raw material

[Steel billet] On the 2nd, the national billet market price has been adjusted to a higher level. Today, the mainstream of Tangshan billet rose 20 yuan / ton, Shanxi steel billet rose 10 yuan / ton, Jiangsu steel billet rose 40 yuan / ton Shandong steel billet temporarily stable. In the early morning, the billet in the Changli area increased by 20 yuan/ton. After the increase, the billet transaction was still acceptable. The finished product price was stable and the price was adjusted. The specific transaction was as follows: Tangshan steel was stable in the morning and the intraday slot was up 10 yuan. / ton, the current mainstream quotation of 3,980-3,990 yuan / ton, channel steel 3940-3960 yuan / ton, angle steel 3,920 yuan / ton, the overall transaction is general, as of 10:30, 16 steel mills turnover 2,1900 tons. Tangshan small narrow belt fell back 10 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton compared with yesterday, the mainstream manufacturers reported 3860 yuan / ton, the overall transaction after the general decline;

[Domestic mine] On the 2nd, some market prices of domestically produced main producing areas were mixed. The price of North China's Xingxing Bureau rose by RMB 5/ton, the price of Beijing Miyun fell by RMB 10/ton, and the price of Huadong Huoqiu rose by RMB 8/ton. Specifically, the North China-Tangshan 66% dry-based tax-included cash factory is 635-645 yuan / ton, the west of the 66% dry-based tax-included cash out of 620-630 yuan / ton, Qian'an 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 645-655 yuan / ton; Zunhua 66% dry basis tax-included cash factory 630-640 yuan / ton; Kuancheng 65% dry basis tax-included cash factory 560 yuan / ton; Zhangping 63.5% vanadium titanium powder dry basis including tax Cash factory 527 yuan / ton;

[Imported mine] On the 2nd, the imported iron ore 1809 contract in the early morning volatility fell, the traders' quotations were basically stable compared with the previous working day, and some varieties in the Tangshan area were slightly lowered by 5 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong PB powder is 460-465 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of PB in Tangshan area is 465-470 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the disk continued to languish. At the beginning of the week, the steel mills mainly took a wait-and-see attitude. Most of them were exploratory inquiry. As of the deadline, the overall market turnover was not good. The trading conditions throughout the day are as follows: Caofeidian Port: PB Powder 457; Jingtang Port: PB Powder 458, PB Block 613/615; Tianjin Port: Unscreened Newman Block 620; Rizhao Port: PB Block 612; Qingdao Port: PB Block 625 . (Unit: RMB / ton)

Steel spot

Construction steel: Today's domestic construction steel prices are adjusted in a narrow range. According to the specific price, the average price of 25 major cities in China is 4140 yuan/ton, which is 2 yuan/ton lower than that of the previous trading day. The prices in North China and Huazhong Wuhan continue to rise. East China, South China Nanning, Southwest Kunming and Northwest Xi'an The regional prices were weak and the rest were stable. In the early trading session, the snails opened lower and higher, and the market low-cost resources were still good. The prices in some regions increased slightly. The medium-term snails fell, the terminal purchase intention decreased, and some market transactions turned cold. From the market feedback point of view, the current market is in the traditional off-season, the demand performance is not good, the high temperature and rainy weather also makes the project slow down, the rigid demand is relatively weak, and with the release of environmental protection pressure, the steel mill output will increase, the market pressure will also Rising, the business mentality is more cautious. On the whole, short-term domestic building materials prices are expected to be consolidating.

Hot rolled coil: Today, the hot rolling prices of 24 major cities in the country fell slightly. The average price of 3.0 hot rolled coils was 4,329 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the national average price of 4.75 hot rolled coils was 4271. Yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's futures market oscillated down, market confidence was frustrated, and merchants' offers steadily declined slightly. At present, the market demand is relatively weak, and the overall transaction is not good. However, the market inventory resources are relatively small, and the price of steel mills remains high, which has certain support for market prices. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,610 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the hot-rolled market will be weaker tomorrow.

Plate: Today, the domestic plate market price fell slightly. The average price of 20mm plate in 23 major cities nationwide was 4,397 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today's market demand is still weak, the transaction is relatively light, and the futures market oscillated down, the market confidence was frustrated, and the merchant's offer was slightly lower. However, the current market inventory resources are relatively small, coupled with the support of cost, businesses are not willing to sell too low. In addition, today's billet market price rose by 20 yuan / ton, the current price of carbon billet is 3,610 yuan / ton. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the plate market will fluctuate weakly tomorrow.

Cold rolling: Today's national cold rolling prices fell slightly. Price: 1.0 national cold rolling average price of 4,720 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day price fell 1 yuan / ton. The main market price: Shanghai market 1.0mm WISCO coil plate offer 4670 yuan / ton, Guangzhou market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4700 yuan / ton, Tianjin market 1.0mm anang steel coil offer 4560 yuan / ton. Market: The overall price stability this week, individual markets slightly cut the offer, the transaction is general, the downstream demand is still low, the price rebound is difficult. On the whole, it is expected that the cold rolling price will fluctuate in a narrow range tomorrow.

Profile: Today's domestic steel market price is weak and consolidating. Although the cost is temporarily stable, there is still a small discount due to actual pressure on the transaction. Specifically, Tangshan's profile prices are stable today, and the price of steel billets is slightly increased. The word size is raised by RMB 10/ton, and the overall transaction in the morning is generally strong. The business mentality improved, and some traders in the afternoon channel rose at a low price. However, in the current off-season, insufficient demand is a major feature, and it is difficult to follow up in the afternoon. East China's profile prices were consolidating, and the afternoon futures market oscillated down. Although there were billet prices supported, but the transaction situation was generally normal and the market mentality was weak, the overall quotation of the business was stable, but the actual transaction still had favorable and loose. The weekend market in South China was not smooth, and the business mentality was cautious. Today's market opening price was more stable. Due to the obvious decline of some steel mills last week, the cost of goods in the late market has declined. Therefore, merchants are more motivated to ship, but downstream demand Still not ideal. On the whole, it is expected that the price of the steel market will continue to weaken in the short term.

Steel pipe: Domestic pipe prices have fallen slightly today. In terms of varieties, the average price of welded pipe 4 inch *3.75mm is 4368 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton from the previous trading day; galvanized pipe 4 inch * 3.75mm national average price 5071 yuan / ton, compared with the previous transaction The daily drop was 2 yuan / ton; the seamless pipe 108 * 4.5mm national average price 5253 yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton compared with the previous transaction. Regarding the pipe factory, the prices of Tianjin Youfa, Juncheng and Lida have not been adjusted. The hot-rolling price of the mainstream seamless pipe factory in Linyi is 4,750 yuan/ton. In terms of welded pipes and galvanized pipes, the market transactions are general, traders are still more cautious, and more needs to be replenished. In terms of seamless pipes, the market transactions were poor, forced by the pressure of shipments, the price of the pipe factory was loose, and the traders were quicker and faster, and the mentality was biased. It is expected that the market price of steel pipe will continue to fluctuate and run weaker tomorrow.

Futures: Today's domestic black commodity futures closed down across the board, of which coke led the decline, the black system today shrinks sharply, and the funds flow out. Specifically: yesterday, the representative steel mill in East China, Shagang, announced the price of building materials in early July, rebar, general line and snails remained stable, respectively, reported 4,300 yuan / ton and 4,640 yuan / ton, steel mills still maintain a very good price . However, with the A-share market and the surrounding markets, the black variety has fallen. Although the increase in steel and silver inventory data at the beginning of the week has declined, it is not enough to support the more fragile market sentiment. In the short-term, with the geopolitical influence of Sino-US trade wars and other geopolitical influences, there are major unstable factors in the financial market.

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