Looking at the Development of Power Pattern Change from the Relationship between Supply and Demand

Polaris Thermal Power Network News: Since the decline in coal prices, the electrical industry has come a long way. First, the thermal power companies benefit from the decline in coal prices or the turning point of the current performance; then the hydropower companies will benefit from the seasonal fall abundance, the diversion of water to the rich, and the profitability is expected to improve. Finally, the new project that will benefit the steady growth policy of nuclear power will accelerate and it will enter a new During the construction period, several important sub-blocks in the power sector can be described as good and frequent.

However, industrial electricity consumption has long been seen as an important precursor to industrial recovery. Under the background that the current economic recovery in China is not obvious, will it be difficult to amplify the industrial power consumption and the growth of the power industry will form a conflict? With the declining growth rate of the national economy, where does the inflection point of the electric power industry come from?

With the advancement of the reform of the power system, following the implementation of the reform of the main and auxiliary separation of the State Grid, 29 provinces across the country have held hearings on the implementation of the residents' ladder price system, and the residential ladder price system will formally enter the implementation stage. Peng Quangang, senior researcher at China Merchants Securities, believes that once the ladder price is implemented, the electricity structure will undergo profound changes. In fact, the electricity data from January to April of this year has already shown the trend of changes in the structure of electricity consumption in China's economic transition in the future.

Data show that from January to April this year, the growth rate of electricity usage in the primary and secondary industries dropped significantly, the primary industry's electricity consumption fell by 4.2%, the secondary industry increased by 3.7%, and the tertiary industry's electricity consumption increased by 12.5%. Electricity usage increased by 15.4% year-on-year. It can be seen that the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption has declined, and that residents and tertiary industries have maintained relatively fast growth. In the course of changes in the electricity structure, the ladder price will refine the structural charges for residential electricity consumption, impose relatively high tariffs on the part of the electricity that is used more and the electricity load is greater, that is, limit excessive energy use through economic leverage. In order to save energy use, the sales price began to merge with the type of electricity price, which was priced by the market, so that the power industry eventually went to the market. The rapid increase in electricity consumption by residents and the tertiary industry, as well as the role of economic leverage, will stabilize the contradiction between the decline in industrial electricity growth and the growth in the performance of the power industry.

At the same time, statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that despite the slowdown in electricity load growth, the overall supply and demand relationship is stable. With the arrival of peak summer electricity, the gap may continue to widen. Electricity demand has become one of the main guarantees for the performance of power companies. Data from January to April showed that the nation's main power grid has the highest power load of 59.73 million kW, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.4 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; the maximum power load was 61.513 million kW, an increase of 7.8% over the same period of last year. Electric load growth rate of 2 percentage points, the overall power supply and demand relationship is stable. Dawen Securities Cai Wenbin believes that there are still gaps in electricity use in the southern, northern and central China power grids. With the arrival of summer peaks, power shortages will still occur.

For different types of power companies, the performance growth point varies. Cai Wenbin believes that due to the increase in prices of global resource products in the past four years and the continuous increase in domestic prices of coal, coal-fired linkage cannot be implemented properly, and the profitability of thermal power companies has dropped significantly. With the reorganization of coal resources, the increase in industrial concentration, and the release of contracted coal control by the state, the era of double-track coal prices has come to an end. Coal-fired power companies have recaptured the coal power game dominance and profitability has skyrocketed. Zhaoxin Investment’s concern is that, from the monthly hydropower generation in May, the year-on-year increase was 31.02%, and the power generation effect in Fengshui period has already been reflected in hydropower companies.

If the aforementioned problems still come from the supply and demand and structural characteristics of the power industry itself, what is the power industry at the bottom of the big economic cycle relying on to maintain the return of growth? Peng Quangang, a senior researcher at China Merchants Securities, believes that in the next 5 to 10 years, China will enter the period of economic restructuring, although economic growth will slow down, but in the economic downturn, due to the reduction of coal downstream demand and prices, the cost of the power industry will further decline . At the same time, the price of electricity in the power industry is relatively strong, and the price of electricity will not be lowered in the short term. The decline in electricity consumption with the economy is limited, and the overall profitability of the industry will be significantly improved. As a result, the power industry has obvious countercyclicality. Peng Quangang thinks.