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Electric power shortage is expected to warn of oil shortage and re-enactment of refined oil market
Will the price of refined oil in May be raised again? When the power shortage and the oil shortage are closely linked, it is particularly important when the National Development and Reform Commission restarts the gate of refined oil price adjustment. Although the price of all commodities including international crude oil prices has fallen sharply since the beginning of May, due to the deep diving of silver prices of up to 24%, according to the domestic 22-day international three-day crude oil price-weighting method, It is expected that from May 9 to May 11, domestic refined oil prices will once again usher in a time window of price increases. “The phenomenon of oil shortages that occurred in the second half of 2010 was rooted in the fact that the relevant ministries and commissions in order to eliminate backward production capacity and then cut power limits, which induced industrial enterprises to use diesel power to compensate for the lack of power.†Yao Daming, Minister of Oil Products, Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce It is said that the electricity shortage in the anti-seasonal cycle is expected to be everywhere. If the government handles it slightly, the oil shortage caused by lack of electricity will be out of control. On the other hand, the phenomenon of the reverse price of domestic refined oil products has risen again. Many private gas stations in Chongqing and Shaanxi have stopped working, and the price of refined oil has once again increased. The price adjustment is expected to be "the early March 21, the international market three crude oil price change rate, just 11 working days after the last round of domestic refined oil price adjustment, once again broke the 4% red warning line." Yindao market analyst Zhao Xu said that although the international market crude oil prices have fallen in a row since May, the average price of crude oil in the three places has been as high as $119 per barrel since the last 22 working days, which is the benchmark price when the price was adjusted on April 5. The increase has exceeded 6%. In the past few days, professional organizations such as Xiwang Energy and Zhuochuang Information have expected that domestic refined oil prices will enter the time window of upward adjustment from May 9 to 11. If it is raised, it is expected that the adjustment will be less than the increase in international crude oil prices, which will increase by about 300 yuan per ton. More sensitive than analysts are market operators. A wholesaler of refined oil products attached to the Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Refinery told the China Business News that as early as the end of April, the conventional bulk wholesale business became very abnormal, not just from the refinery. Large quantities of oil sources, even civilian gas stations, do not dare to rush into a large number of oil sources, because for the latter, the price of the batch is very close, eliminating the cost of manpower, electricity, transportation, etc., the social gas station has I don’t start making money at the beginning. On the other hand, the accumulation of refined oil products has revived. Yao Daming of the Guangdong Oil and Gas Chamber of Commerce said that at present, the retail price is close to the maximum price limit, and the more the oil stations are sold, the more losses they have. Therefore, non-main oil stations (referring to non-Chinese oil (11.15, -0.25, -2.19%), Sinopec (8.48, -0.10, -1.17%)) can guarantee the supply of oil to old customers. Yao Daming believes that the expectation of grass and trees is inseparable from the current price adjustment strategy of the National Development and Reform Commission for refined oil products. "One-way incremental price adjustment method, forcing market operators to use reluctance to sell and other means to avoid market risks." He said that according to the refined oil price adjustment method, at the latest on May 11, the price adjustment time window will open. However, according to the previous price adjustment practice, the real price adjustment time will be concentrated in late May. The Ministry of Commerce has illegally operated. Indeed, in the course of price adjustments, the NDRC has almost adopted a sudden price adjustment method. "The sudden price adjustment strategy is to make you guess. This strategy objectively increases the cost and risk of the hoarders. But this is only the tactical skills of the NDRC. From a strategic point of view, the general direction of raising the oil price is certain. The hoarders only need to follow the general idea of ​​stock speculation, that is, buy-hold-price-selling, and ignore the tactical shock of the NDRC, which will also gain huge profits.†Yao Da Ming said, it is not ruled out that the recent international oil prices continue to fall, and then quickly pull down the average of the huge increase so far accumulated on April 5 (the last price adjustment date). It is worth noting that on May 5, the General Office of the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Current Management of the Refined Oil Market", requiring the competent commercial authorities at all levels to resolutely ban the illegal operation of refined oil products with relevant departments. To stop and correct the problem of forced tying of goods during refueling, and seriously investigate and deal with illegal and illegal business operations such as the wholesale price of refined oil products by the refined oil business enterprises. The notice pointed out that due to factors such as continued high crude oil prices and domestic refined oil consumption entering the peak season, some enterprises or individuals have illegally refueled oil tanks and tankers without approval, and unreasonable price increases for wholesale oil products companies. Gas-fired stations tying goods and other illegal and illegal issues have damaged consumer rights and seriously disrupted the normal operating order of China's refined oil market. "The Ministry of Commerce's statement this time implies that the tide of refined oil products has been very serious." Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Han Jingyuan believes that the international crude oil operation will fully support the domestic market price. Domestic oil prices will once again face the opening of the price adjustment window, and the inter-bank hoarding operation will increase, but the main sales policies mentioned above have reservations for this type of customers. Electricity shortages are expected to fuel the fire. The price of crude oil is ups and downs. The industry is worried about whether it will repeat the power shortage in 2011. As early as the second half of 2010, measures such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions cut power to eliminate backward production capacity, and some areas had pseudo-electricity shortages, which led to a series of chain reactions such as oil shortage. Han Jingyuan admits that this scene is still fresh in most market practitioners. The problem is that the summer of 2011 has only just begun. The real peak period of power consumption has not yet arrived. The signs of oil shortage due to power shortage have already sprouted again. It is understood that since March, the power market has continued to show a small peak of “low seasons and not weakâ€, and there are many “earth shortages†in the off-season in Zhejiang and other places in China. Among them, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and other places have shown varying levels of electricity use, and various places have taken measures such as power cuts and electricity. Of course, this trend of tight power resources is also inseparable from the impact of factors such as the price of coal and the ability to transport electricity across regions. Han Jingyuan believes that in the face of this situation, the market will likely trigger a surge in demand for diesel power generation. In addition, the demand for refined oil products will peak in the peak season. In 2011, the gap in China's diesel oil will once again appear. In fact, the current sales strategies of China Petroleum and Sinopec are more or less confirmed that they expect the oil shortage to come. It is understood that the overall sales policies of the two major oil companies this year are mainly aimed at the end customers. For the resource re-circulation customer groups, strict measures will be taken and the wholesale shipments will be stopped. The operating rate of its upstream refinery is also at a high load. In addition, the export volume of refined oil products has also been significantly reduced. At the same time, the amount of external mining plans in various regions has been increased to ensure domestic retail and end-market supply. According to Han Jingyuan, in addition to the refined oil products sold by the main group, local refineries occupying about 1/3 of the national production level can play an important role in supplementing petroleum resources, but face high international crude oil prices. With the regulation of domestic refined oil prices, local refineries are also unable to do anything. He Jieying, market analyst of Treasure Island, believes that from the market trend in the second quarter, especially since May, diesel can be converted into electric energy traction, and the diesel market is in a tight atmosphere. The two major oil groups are also deliberately controlling the sales rhythm and controlling out Volume. He Jieying said that from the fluctuation of prices, it is obvious that the main sales strategy is to control the sales of diesel and to increase the sales of gasoline. Zhao Xu, who works in Treasure Island, also said that the more serious is that the power resource gap has arrived in advance, and South China, Central China, and East China have begun to adopt power-limiting measures, and the official forecast issued by China Electricity Council on April 28 According to the report, China's power supply gap may be around 30 million kilowatts during the peak season this summer, which means that diesel will become the first catcher to make up for the shortage of power resources. Therefore, the "oil shortage" is not probable. Of course, the high prices of refined oil products are also a reason why diesel will not become a shortage of power resources on a large scale. According to industry sources, the cost of electricity for diesel power generation has reached 1.5 to 2 yuan per kWh. This expensive price is not much different from the normal commercial electricity price (about 1 yuan), but it is not much different from industrial enterprises. Large-volume purchases are only as expensive as the price of electricity below 0.5 yuan. At 1 am on May 6th, Beijing time, the deepest decline in US crude oil futures contract in June was close to 10%, the lowest hit 98.39 US dollars; at the same time, London crude oil futures prices also fell nearly 10%, the lowest to 109.02 US dollars. Even so, the price of the international market still meets the 4% red line standard, and once the 22 working days expire, the domestic refined oil price will be raised again.