2017 “China•Shuitou Stone Index”

First, the 2017 stone boom index

In 2017, the trend of the stone industry's prosperity index showed a general fluctuation adjustment, and the overall trend showed an upward trend. There were two high peaks throughout the year, which were in March of the first half of the year and October of the second half of the year. The highest value of the prosperity index still appeared in April, closing at 117.57 points, the lowest value appeared in February, and closed at 76.05 points, the difference was 41.52, the fluctuation range was larger than 2016. The annual fluctuation trend of the stone industry prosperity index generally shows the following characteristics:

1. The overall level of prosperity is higher than 2016. The 2017 holiday is roughly the same as the 2016 annual trend, but this year, except for the June prosperity index, which is slightly lower than last year, the other months are higher than the same period last year, and the growth rate is high. Something is getting better.

2. The index trends in the first half of the year are basically the same. In the first half of this year, the trend showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and the peak value of the first half of the year and the highest value of the second half of the year were almost the same, and the difference was small. The warming in the first half of the first half of the year was mainly reflected in the March-April period. During this period, the stone boom index showed a rapid rise, especially in March, which almost showed a straight upward trend. In the early spring, with the commencement of construction of various projects, the real estate market warmed up, and driven by the favorable performance of the Xiamen Stone Fair, production and sales grew rapidly, orders increased significantly, the market warmed up, and the economy continued to rise. In April, the prosperity of the stone industry continued to rise slightly, the index level reached a new high, and the industry's economy was stable. In the second half of the year, the prosperity index is at a relatively high level. “Golden September and Silver 10” is the traditional sales season of the building materials industry, and the sales volume of the industry has increased. At the same time, starting in September, stone exhibitions from all over the country came one after another, especially the 18th Nan'an Shuitou Stone Expo was approaching. The attention of Nan'an stone increased, the market sentiment warmed up, and the intention order increased. The boom in October is also the highest in the whole year.

3. The year-end and early spring prosperity index is the lowest in the year. This year's three-month prosperity index is below the average, in January, February, and December, at the beginning and end of the year, while other months are above average. As the year is approaching, with the suspension of infrastructure and engineering projects, orders, labor, production and sales are rapidly shrinking, the stone boom is declining, and the winter stone industry boom is the lowest in the year.

Second, 2017 stone price index point of view

1. Stone price index

The trend of the 2017 price index is quite different from that of 2016, and the average level is lower than last year. After the price index fell at the end of 2016, there was no big ups and downs this year, and the annual index stabilized. The fluctuation of the price index this year is relatively flat compared to the ups and downs of the prosperity index. In 2017, the trend of the stone price index was generally stable in the first half of the year, and the fluctuation range was slightly smaller. After continuously climbing to the highest point in June and August, it continued to fall, and it was slightly hovering at the end of the year. The highest price index appeared in August, closing at 96.26 points, the lowest value still appeared in November, closing at 95.67 points, the difference was only 0.59, the annual price fluctuation of stone was small, and the overall stability.

In the first half of the year, the market conditions have warmed up. In March, driven by the Xiamen Stone Fair, the market sentiment has warmed up and the turnover has increased. In particular, the price of large plates has generally increased.

In the second half of the year, the monthly index has been improving all the way. The market for marble slabs has been rising, especially for high-quality slabs. The price has risen and the market is very good. The rise in marble prices has driven the price index to rise. In November, affected by the positive effects of the exhibition, the price decline narrowed and the trend gradually stabilized. In December, the year is approaching. With the emergence of a wave of home improvement, the prices of various types of stone slabs and finished products have rebounded, and the price index of steel has been slightly hovering.

2, stone classification price index

In 2017, the price index of marble products basically matched the trend of stone price index. The price of marble price fluctuated at 96.5~97.33 points. The highest value of the index appeared in January, and it closed at 97.33 points. The lowest value appeared in February and closed at 96.5 points. The difference is 0.83, and the fluctuation range is larger than last year. This year, the price of marble fell sharply after falling sharply in February. The peak of the price in the whole year was in August, and the price of marble slabs was good. Among them, the price of marble blocks and large plates showed a downward trend, and the monthly price of finished products basically did not fluctuate. Part of the old stock stone price cuts, material, quality grades, etc. will affect the price fluctuation. This year, marble is the hot spot of this year's home furnishing, especially in the high-end market. The popularity of the home improvement market has spawned the rise in marble prices in the second half of this year.

In 2017, the price trend of granites generally showed U-shaped fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the price was higher, and the mid-year price fell all the way. By the end of the year, the price returned to the price at the beginning of the year. Contrary to the price of marble, the highest price index of granite appeared in February, closing at 89.53 points, the lowest value appeared in June, closing at 88.66 points, the difference was 2.73, the fluctuation range was significantly narrower than last year, and the price also stabilized. . The monthly price of granite blocks showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a large fluctuation range. It continued to decline from February to June. After a slight rebound in July, it oscillated downwards in August. From September to November, prices continued to rise to the price at the beginning of the year. By the end of the year, it will remain stable. The monthly price of the big board was stable this year, with no fluctuations; the monthly price of finished products fluctuated in the first half of the year, and it rose slightly to stabilize in the second half.

In 2017, the price trend of synthetic marbles generally showed a bullish trend from January to June in the first half of the year. After August, it fluctuated and fell to the end of the year. The highest price index appeared in August, closing at 103.06 points, the trough appeared in January, and closed at 100.09 points, the difference was 2.97. The fluctuation range was larger than last year, and the annual price showed a trend upwards. The monthly price of synthetic marble blocks is basically non-fluctuating, and the price trend of the large board is basically the same as that of the first-class classification. The monthly price of finished products has remained basically stable after rising in March.

Third, the main factors affecting the prosperity of the stone industry

According to the "China·Shuitou Stone Index" data system, there are 6 months in 2017, that is, 50% of the monthly stone industry prosperity index level is higher than 100 points, and the index has reached record highs. This shows that the overall prosperity of the stone industry this year has A good trend. The factors affecting the prosperity of the stone industry mainly include the following:

1. Policy aspects:

(1) The most stringent environmental protection. In 2017, environmental protection rectification swept the whole country, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Chengdu, Laizhou, Yunfu, Putian, Shuitou, etc., without exception, market demolition, mine closure, factory shutdown... a series of actions made stone people caught off guard and complained. As of January 3, 2018, the fourth batch of central environmental protection inspection teams had completed feedback on the opinions of the eight provinces (districts). So far, the first round of inspections completed the full coverage of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). . Relevant data show that since March 2017, Shuitou Town has held more than 200 “three no” stone enterprises in the jurisdiction of Shuitou Town and the medium and large-scale enterprises with fierce reflections from the masses in the area under the jurisdiction of Shuitou Town. Power measures, forced production stoppage. It is understood that in only 2-3 months, Guanqiao, Shuitou and Shijing have shut down nearly 400 stone enterprises, of which 20 are large-scale enterprises. (2) Nan'an City officially issued the “Work Plan for Ten Measures for Comprehensive Improvement of Building Finish Stone Industry in Nan'an City”, and continued to strengthen the renovation of the building facing stone industry. According to the "Program", Nan'an will cancel the Liucheng Stone Processing Transition Zone and the Yanqiao Stone Processing Concentration Zone, implement the stone building enterprises outside the stone concentration area to implement the differential electricity price or close the ban, strictly control the stone finishing of the building outside the stone processing area. Scale and quantity of enterprises, deepen the special rectification of the building facing stone industry in the stone concentration area, accelerate the standardization and rectification of the stone powder transfer station and landfill, improve the comprehensive utilization of stone powder, improve the long-term supervision mechanism of non-coal mines, and promote the ecological management of mines. Ten specific measures, such as strengthening administrative law enforcement supervision and giving play to the guiding role of financial policies, strictly regulating dust emissions, raw material transportation, raw material storage yards, utilization of stone powder and other daily environmental behaviors in the stone industry, strengthening dust pollution control management system and supervision, and continuously improving stone materials The state of the enterprise's environment will guide enterprises to become stronger and bigger, and strive to further increase the concentration of the stone industry through two to three years.

2. The influence of “BRIC”. The establishment of the BRICS Leaders' Meeting Mechanism has provided political guidance and strong impetus for the cooperation and development between the BRICS countries. In September this year, the BRICS leaders met in Xiamen, Xiamen officially entered the BRICS time, and fully launched. Preparatory work. According to statistics, in the first quarter of 2017, Xiamen inspection and quarantine received a total of 1,282 batches of imported granite stone from the “BRIC countries”, with a weight of 511,800 tons and a value of US$830.93 million, an increase of 8.83% and 13.94% respectively. 12.38%. Among them, the granite stone imported from the “BRIC country” accounted for 78.96% of the weight of imported granite stone at Xiamen Port and 75.64% of the value of the imported stone, which became the main trade target of imported granite stone at Xiamen Port. The data shows that the granite stone imported from the BRICS countries mainly comes from India, Brazil, South Africa and other three countries, showing the high content of “bricks”.

3. Internet + stone transformation. In 2017, the year of major changes in the stone industry, corresponding to the “Industrial 4.0 Call”, the application of various “Internet + Stone” has sprung up. For example, the Shishi Mall produces 007 large-plate scanners to test the water e-commerce; the Shiquan Shimei VR system visually displays the virtual home improvement application scene in front of consumers.

4, the most individual "stone + design." In July 2017, Fonengda Stone set out to build “100 Mining Alliances” and put forward the “One Hundred Million Development Strategy”. Based on the alliance mines, the alliance designers are the promoters and the alliance dealers are the pioneers, integrating the standardization. , financial thinking, Internet thinking, aimed at benefiting both supply and demand. Not only that, the “Hundred Mines Alliance” also launched the “Most Beautiful Stone National Design Grand Prix” with Guangzhou Design Week at the end of 2017. This initiative may lead the stone industry to enter the heart of every stone person. Design + "Time. Also in July, “China Granite Plates Centralized Purchasing Platform” was a thunder, which shocked the entire stone industry and rewrote the development history of Chinese granite. The collection platform pioneered the line-type vertical procurement marketing model. The three major functional departments of “Stone Application Planning Institute”, “Real Estate Division” and “Financial Products Department” escort the mine owners and real estate developers, and truly eliminate the intermediate links. . The joint cooperation between stone people and designers is coming with unstoppable momentum. Through the personalized mode of stone + design, we will vigorously promote the integration and development of the stone industry, and promote the transformation of stone enterprises to go faster and better.

5, the pulsation of the real estate market is closely related to the nerves of the stone industry. In 2017, the real estate policy adhered to the keynote of “the house is used for living, not for speculation”. The local area is controlled by the urban agglomeration, and the change from the traditional demand side adjustment to the supply side is changed. The film was tightened, the supply structure was optimized, and the control effect gradually appeared. The annual transaction volume was significantly reduced. According to preliminary statistics, from January to November 2017, the average monthly transaction area of ​​50 representative urban residential commercial markets was 29.43 million square meters, down 24.2% year-on-year, and the absolute value was lower than the same period of 2015. In terms of cities of different levels, the first-line representative city has the most obvious decline in transaction volume, and the absolute level is equivalent to that in 2011; the second-line representative city's transaction area has dropped to 2015 level; the third-line representative city has fallen back compared with last year, but the absolute scale is relatively high. Even if China's real estate returns to positive growth, the future is a modest, single-digit growth. In this context, all real estate-related industries in China will start from a supernormal growth in the past and enter a relatively modest growth phase. Stone as a downstream industry with real estate, we must understand the new normal, and we must adapt to the new normal.

6. When the stone enters the home improvement, it is in progress. With the improvement of consumer taste, traditional decoration building materials can not meet the needs of modern decoration. At present, although plastics, ceramics and other building materials have been widely used, and seized part of the market for building materials decoration, but the stone is comfortable, energy-saving, beautiful and durable, diverse in shape, easy to design, cost-effective and many other features, can fill this aspect. The blank is still the material of choice for architectural decoration projects. Especially with the vigorous development of the construction and decoration industry in China, stone has undoubtedly become the choice of outdoor landscape design and interior decoration. At the same time, the demand for various stone varieties and specifications is increasing. At the same time, the stone industry should implement scientific management, give full play to the advantages of its own industrial clusters, and improve the positioning of the industry and the market. The development of the domestic stone industry has a long way to go, and its core is closely related to its processing technology and manufacturing machinery.

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