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The industrial economy has risen steadily. In the first half of 2017, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.9% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole year of last year, and the highest rate of quarterly growth since 2015. The transformation of new and old kinetic energy of the industry presents two major characteristics: on the one hand, the development of emerging industries is accelerating, and the high-tech industries and equipment manufacturing industries are respectively higher than the above-scale industries by 6.2 and 4.6 percentage points. On the other hand, the upgrading effect of traditional industrial transformation has begun to emerge, and professional equipment manufacturing, trucks, furniture, and home appliances continue to recover. The benefits of upstream industries such as steel and nonferrous metals have maintained a high growth trend.
First, it is more difficult for coal to go into production capacity. This year's production capacity will all involve the current normal production of coal mines, the difficulty of shutting down is increased; the space for diversifying redundant employees within the company is gradually narrowing, and the problem of personnel resettlement in the process of capacity is still difficult. Second, the market is forced to weaken. From January to May, the profits of steel and non-ferrous industries increased by 93.5% and 57.5% respectively. The company's efficiency continued to improve, and the possibility of new production capacity and the resumption of production of closed equipment increased. Third, the Ministry of Finance encourages the special award-winning funds to implement the early retreat and multi-award awards. Objectively, the incentive effect on the de-capacity enterprises is gradually weakened.
Manufacturing investment is expected to rebound . CCID thinks that in the first half of the year, consumption, investment, and export “troika†will work together. First, consumption has grown steadily. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year. Second, industrial investment has stabilized and rebounded. From the perspective of the three major sectors, manufacturing investment has risen steadily, up 5.5%. Third, exports maintained a medium-to-high-speed growth. Affected by the recovery of external demand, the depreciation of the renminbi, and increased export confidence, the value of industrial export delivery increased by 10.9%.
CCID thinks that in the second half of the year, developed economies will recover moderately, and emerging economies will recover slowly due to capital outflows and currency depreciation. In the second half of the year, the endogenous power of China's economic growth has accelerated, and the growth rate of the industrial economy is expected to increase slightly.
First, consumption will grow steadily. The consumption growth of residential consumption has slowed down; automobile consumption has grown steadily; oil and products will fall slightly due to price impact. The sharing economy, Internet consumption, and overseas buying boom are gradually releasing new growth momentum. The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2017 is expected to increase by about 10%.
Second, the growth rate of industrial investment is expected to stabilize. Looking at the three major areas, manufacturing investment is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. The policy effect of promoting private investment will be realized, the market environment will gradually improve; the investment structure will be gradually optimized, and the investment in high-tech industries and technological transformation will increase. Industrial investment is expected to increase by about 5% in 2017.
Third, the growth rate of exports has stabilized and stabilized. The construction of a cross-border e-commerce comprehensive experimental zone and the acceleration of the “One Belt, One Road†strategy are conducive to China's exports. It is estimated that the industrial export delivery value for the whole year of 2017 will increase by 8% to 10%.
CCID thinks that in the first half of the year, the growth rate of profits of industrial enterprises maintained a high growth. In the first half of this year, the PPI year-on-year increase reached a new high in recent years, and the high level in the second quarter fell. The PPI in June fell by 0.2%, and the growth rate of corporate profits also declined. From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 22.7% year-on-year, and has continued to fall since reaching a high point in February. From the contribution rate of 41 major industries to the profit growth of industrial enterprises, traditional industries are still the main support, with a contribution rate of 72% and an advanced manufacturing contribution rate of 22%.
Accelerating the conversion of old and new kinetic energy. CCID thinks that at present, the actual weakening of industrial competitiveness is mainly reflected in the following: First, the production factors such as capital are effectively affected by the real economy. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of medium and long-term loan balances in China's domestic and foreign currency industries has been significantly lower than that in 2014 and 2015. The balance of medium and long-term loan balances of domestic and foreign currency industries has been declining quarter by quarter since 2011. Second, the economic dislocation has effectively affected China's industrial competitiveness. In the first half of the year, the added value of the financial industry accounted for 8% of GDP, surpassing the economies of the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, Germany and Germany; while the added value of manufacturing industry as a share of GDP has been lower than the standard of 30% for early warning monitoring.
CCID think tank said that the old and new kinetic energy conversion has a long way to go. First, the development of emerging industries is relatively fast, but its scale is still difficult to compete with traditional industries. In the first half of this year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 13.1% year-on-year, but it accounted for only 12% of the industry. Second, the economic growth brought about by the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is mostly alternative growth, and has limited contribution to steady growth. Third, the cultivation of new kinetic energy requires sufficient input of innovative elements such as talents, technology and capital, as well as deep-level reforms in the fields of institutional mechanisms. The conversion of new and old kinetic energy will also be a long-term process.
In addition, CCID thinks that the new pattern of regional development is beginning to take shape, and it is necessary to accelerate the development of new regional kinetic energy. First, the industrial economy in the eastern region has grown steadily. The industrial growth rate has rebounded since November last year. It increased by 8.2% year-on-year in June this year, and maintained a steady growth of 6.5% in April and May. All provinces and cities have accelerated the layout of advanced manufacturing industries and led economic growth with technological innovation. However, the scale of advanced manufacturing is still difficult to make up for the gap in the decline of traditional industries.
Second, the industrial growth rate in the central and western regions has stabilized and increased. In June this year, industries in the central and western regions increased by 8.5% and 7.9% respectively. In recent years, the central and western regions have actively docked the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the “Belt and Road†strategy and undertaken industrial transfer. The investment growth rate has reached more than 10%, showing great investment potential and will support the sustained high-speed growth of the central and western economy. However, in the context of de-capacity, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places dominated by coal, coke, electricity and steel will face production stoppages.
Third, the industrial growth rate in the Northeast has stabilized. In June this year, the industrial growth in the Northeast region was 1.7%, and the negative growth trend ended in March this year, and it continued to rise for three months. In addition, in March this year, the State Council issued the “Work Plan for Counterpart Cooperation between Some Provinces and Cities in the Northeast and the Eastern Regionsâ€, clarifying that some cities have established counterpart cooperation, speeding up the replication and promotion of reforms and innovations in the eastern region, and jointly building a cooperation platform to effectively support the Northeast industry. Warm up.
CCID think tank said that overall, in the second half of the year, China's industrial growth rate will continue to grow steadily. It is expected that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by about 6.5% in 2017.
In this regard, CCID think tank suggested that more measures should be taken simultaneously, and the production capacity should be attacked hard; the implementation should be implemented and the investment vitality should be stimulated; the deep integration should be promoted to promote the virtual and real dance; and the new and old kinetic energy conversion should be promoted step by step.
New and old kinetic energy conversion accelerates industrial economy will continue to grow steadily
Abstract Recently, CCID thinks about the analysis of industrial economic operations in the first half of 2017 and the trend judgment in the second half of the year. CCID thinks that China's industrial economy has risen steadily in the first half of the year, but some long-term and structural problems in the current industrial economic operation need to be resolved. In the second half of the year, affecting workers...
Recently, CCID thinks about the analysis of industrial economic operations in the first half of 2017 and the trend judgment in the second half of the year. CCID thinks that China's industrial economy has risen steadily in the first half of the year, but some long-term and structural problems in the current industrial economic operation need to be resolved. In the second half of the year, uncertain factors affecting the industrial economic trend still exist. It is expected that China's industrial growth rate will continue to grow steadily, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by about 6.5%.