Central Economic Work Conference: Light Growth and Reform

Abstract As the highlight of the annual economic work, the Central Economic Work Conference opened in Beijing on the 10th. Although the meeting will not set a refinement target such as GDP, the recent think-tank intensively released economic growth forecasts, China's economic growth will reach 7.5% next year. analysis...
As the highlight of the annual economic work, the Central Economic Work Conference opened in Beijing on the 10th. Although the meeting will not set a refinement target such as GDP, the recent think-tank intensively released economic growth forecasts, China's economic growth will reach 7.5% next year. The analysis believes that after the overall goals and timetable for comprehensive reforms proposed by the three plenary sessions of the 18th session, the Central Economic Work Conference may dilute growth on the overall macro-policy, with reform as a priority.

Think tanks intensively predict economic growth or GDP growth of 7.5% next year

The Central Economic Work Conference opened in Beijing on the morning of the 10th. As the highest-level economic conference convened by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, the Central Economic Work Conference will analyze the international and domestic economic situation, summarize the economic work in 2013, and propose the overall requirements and main tasks of the 2014 economic work.

On December 3, Xi Jinping, the general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the Politburo meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2014. The meeting was regarded by the outside world as the "blow-up meeting" and "fixing meeting" of the Central Economic Work Conference. The meeting pointed out that the fundamentals of China's economic development have not changed for a long time. We must use the spirit, ideas and methods of reform to improve macroeconomic regulation and control. Scientifically grasp the macro-control policy framework and maintain policy continuity and stability. We must do a good job in the implementation of the overall plan for central reform, actively promote reforms in key areas, and focus on enhancing the development of endogenous power.

Some media reports, such as GDP, CPI and other refinement targets, will not be announced until the next two national conferences. The Central Economic Work Conference is mainly responsible for making "principle" arrangements for economic work in the next year. It is believed that this year China’s macroeconomic regulation and control policy will continue to emphasize “stable progress”.

Despite this, at the end of the year, many domestic think tanks have recently intensively threw out expectations for China's GDP growth next year. On the 10th, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences held a seminar on analysis and prediction of China's economic situation. The 2014 Blue Book of Economics released at the meeting predicted that China's GDP grew by 7.7% in 2013; China's GDP grew by 7.5% in 2014.

On the 9th, the China Macroeconomic Operation Report (2013~2014) issued by the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that China's economic growth rate is expected to be 7.7% in 2013, and China's economic growth rate in 2014 may be 7.8%.

Prior to this, the "Green Paper on Economic Information: China and World Economic Development Report (2014)" edited by the National Information Center and the Social Science Literature Publishing House predicted that the annual GDP will increase by 7.6%, and the Chinese economy will grow by 7.5 in 2014. %.

The above forecast shows that this year, major institutions have gradually become a consensus on the transformation of China's economy from "high speed" to "medium speed". Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that China's economic growth is entering a new normal, that is, the growth rate is between 7% and 8%.

At the same time, the Central Organization Department recently issued the "Notice on Improving the Performance Assessment of Local Party and Government Leading Groups and Leading Cadres", saying that it is not only the main indicator of performance evaluation and performance, but not regional production. Total value and growth rate ranking. It also proposes to strengthen the assessment of the government's debt situation and regard government debt as an important indicator of performance evaluation.

This move shows that the new performance appraisal system is correcting the bias of the heroes of economic growth, and pays more attention to the development of quality, development methods and developmental stamina. This has also led many analysts to believe that next year's economic growth target will be further lowered to promote transformational reform.

Positive fiscal policy or will continue to reform will become a focus

Although the Politburo meeting on the 3rd did not talk about the tone of fiscal policy and monetary policy, it seems that China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy next year.

Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the press conference of the 2014 Economic Blue Book of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences that next year China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, improve its structural tax reduction policy, and expand The scope of implementation of the reform of the camp will keep the fiscal deficit rate basically stable, rationally control the level of local debt, and adopt various measures to gradually resolve local debt risks. At the same time, he believes that a prudent monetary policy will continue to be implemented.

Wang Jun, deputy director of the Consulting and Research Department of the China International Economic Exchange Center, believes that although the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference has not yet been announced, some political ideas for next year have been revealed from the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee. It is expected that the Central Economic Work Conference will mainly reflect continuity and stability in its policies, and there will be no major adjustments. The overall tone should be steady and continuous, and continue a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

According to media analysis, from the information disclosed in the previous Politburo meeting, the overall macro policy in 2014 will dilute growth and highlight reforms, and the key to improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth will become the key to next year's reform.

From the point of view of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee held recently, the meeting reviewed and adopted the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues" and put forward the overall objectives, general direction, timetable, etc. of the comprehensive deepening reform. Reform made system deployment. Among them, economic system reform has become the focus of comprehensive deepening reform.

Experts generally believe that the four major reforms, including administrative system reform, fiscal and tax reform, financial reform and state-owned enterprise reform, will be steadily advanced next year. It is foreseeable that the convening of the Central Economic Work Conference has made the future of China's economy more attractive.

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