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Can the photovoltaic industry encounter an unprecedented crisis?
Jiangxi Saiwei, which has received much attention in recent days, is only a microcosm of PV companies' deep crisis in the capital chain. Statistics show that due to weak demand and plunge prices, Bacheng PV listed companies are expected to decline in the first half of this year. The high inventory, business cash flow sharply reduced, coupled with the enthusiasm of investment funds and banks for photovoltaics, the industry is facing the risk of tight or even broken capital chains. “The development of photovoltaic industry has entered a bottleneck period. The price of products has dropped from 6,000 yuan to 7,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan per set. The profitability of enterprises has been seriously declining. New projects have been postponed, corporate financing capacity has decreased, cash flow is small, and the capital chain is Faced with significant pressure.†Shen Hongwen, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Consulting, believes that the photovoltaic industry is facing unprecedented challenges. Since 2011, the chill of the PV industry has not yet dispersed, which can be seen from the listed companies in the PV industry that have disclosed the results for the first half of 2012. WIND statistics show that as of July 19, a total of 55 listed companies involved in the photovoltaic concept announced the first half of 2012 performance forecast, of which 46 announced a year-on-year increase in net profit (only the year-on-year calculation of the value). Among the 46 listed companies, according to the lower limit of net profit, 35 companies expect net profit to decline in the first half of the year. The other 9 listed companies also expect net profit to fall sharply or even lose money, that is, the overall forecast of listed companies in the domestic PV industry. The number has dropped to 44, accounting for up to 80%. Among them, 13 PV companies are expected to experience their first loss. Taking sunflower as an example, the company’s latest announcement of the first-half performance forecast announcement shows that it is expected to lose 160 million yuan to 170 million yuan in the first half of this year, down 221.25% to 228.83% from the profit of 130 million yuan in the same period last year. In the quarterly report on April 25, Sunflower had expected net profit to fall by more than 50% in the first half of the year. It is worth noting that in addition to sunflowers, Super Sun, Vico Essence, Seiko Technology also made performance corrections, and all were downward revisions, showing that the company's operating conditions are even worse than the executives expected. Among the PV giants listed abroad, there are also general losses. The data from WIND shows that in the first quarter of 2012, including Jiangxi Saiwei, Suntech Power, Jinko Energy, Hanwha New Energy, Yingli Green Energy, and Qihui Photovoltaic companies such as Solar Energy, JA Solar, Changzhou Trina Solar, Astor Solar and Grand New Energy all lost money. Among them, Jiangxi Saiwei lost 185 million US dollars, Suntech Power lost 133 million US dollars, and Jingke New Energy lost 56.6 million US dollars. Overall, the above 10 PV companies lost US$ 612 million in the first quarter alone. The plunge in prices is an important factor in causing losses. According to data provided by the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, from January to June 2012, polysilicon prices have dropped from 30.5 US dollars / kg to 23.6 US dollars / kg, a drop of 22.6%. The price of battery components also dropped from $0.951/W at the beginning of January to $0.82/W at the end of June, a drop of 13.8%. "This year's shipments are still very normal, but due to overcapacity, the price has dropped by almost half compared with the same period of last year, but the product cost has dropped much less than the same period of last year, causing the gross profit margin to drop sharply." Accepting the Economic Information Daily In an interview with reporters, Zhang Jianmin, manager of Suntech's power media relations department, said frankly that the current operating pressure of PV companies is relatively large and their profitability is seriously declining. Under such circumstances, the problem of cash flow has become more prominent. Due to poor sales of downstream cells and components, upstream raw material suppliers have turned credit sales into cash transactions, increasing the pressure on downstream PV component manufacturers' cash flow. On the other hand, in order to maintain market share, downstream PV module manufacturers will have a longer settlement cycle for customers. "Under the two aspects, the demand for corporate cash flow is high. Now China's PV companies are generally in high debt, and more than half of the companies will be free from the break of the capital chain." Anonymity Industry insiders told reporters. In fact, as early as the 2012 quarterly report, signs of tight capital chain of PV companies have already appeared. WIND statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the cash flow of operating activities of listed companies with 79 PV concepts fell sharply from 117 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of last year to 295 million yuan, and their inventories were 58.7 billion at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. Yuan further rose to 62.8 billion yuan, both of which showed the cold winter situation in which the cash flow in the photovoltaic industry was extremely tight and the inventory was constantly high. To make matters worse, due to the overall sluggishness of the photovoltaic industry, various investment funds and banks have lowered their expectations for the profitability of photovoltaic companies. Their enthusiasm for photovoltaic companies has faded, the amount of investment has fallen sharply, and investment has been significantly reduced. According to the statistics of CVSource, a financial data product of ChinaVenture Investment Group, in 2012, only one PV inverter manufacturer, GREAT New Energy, obtained PE investment.