The development of scenery is about to transform

The “Windscape: China Wind Power Development Report 2011” released on June 16 shows that in the next five years, China’s wind power will continue to lead the world. Now that China’s photovoltaic industry has the conditions for scale development, we should learn from wind power development experience and adhere to the principles of healthy development.

In 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China exceeded that of the United States and became the world's largest wind power installation. The “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” currently under development has made it clear that by 2015, non-fossil energy will account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption. Compared with other new energy sources, wind power and photovoltaic power generation have more advantages in terms of industrialization, resources, and economics. They will become important energy technologies that must be taken into account in China's sustainable development and have the possibility of occupying the commanding heights of world development. At the same time as rapid development, China's renewable energy industry, including wind power and solar energy, faces many challenges. How to transform from rapid development to healthy development is a major issue for policy makers and the industry.

The healthy development of wind power in China In 2010, the world wind power showed a slowing trend for the first time. Nevertheless, in the next five years, the world wind power will continue to grow.

At present, China has 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) that already have wind farms. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region led the development of wind power in China with a cumulative installed capacity of 13.86 GW, followed by Gansu, Hebei, and Liao 3-0 According to industry experts, by the end of 2015, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China will reach 100-150 GW. With the further improvement of the economics of wind power and the gradual resolution of the issue of wind power integration, the country will continue to lead the development of wind power in the world in the next five years under the strong support of government policies.

Although the development of China's wind power industry has a history of more than 20 years, it has really entered the track of rapid development after 2003. From the policy level, the main factors for the success of China’s wind power development include: having a clear development goal, planning, and clarity. The legal framework and the industrial development environment in which various investment entities actively participate.

The “Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment” issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in May 2011 did not separately list the wind energy industry. This does not mean that wind power is not concerned but only because the development strategy of the new energy industry during the “12th Five-Year Plan” has been adjusted. In the past, the wind power industry's strategy of “building large bases and integrating into large power grids” will be replaced by a “centralized + distributed” development strategy. In 2010, China stepped up the development of offshore wind power. As of the end of 2010, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China reached approximately 150 MW. In the future, China will establish a number of distributed wind power bases in areas with high power loads such as coastal areas. According to the existing planning goals, China's offshore wind power capacity is expected to reach 5 GW by 2015 and about 30 GW by 2020.

China's PV market will lead the world in 2010. The global PV market continues its strong growth. According to preliminary statistics, the solar PV market has a new capacity of 15.8 GW, and the annual growth rate exceeds 100%. Europe is still a key area for the development of photovoltaics. The entire European Union in 2010 has seen a historic breakthrough in the newly installed photovoltaic capacity exceeding wind power. The potential market developments in China, the United States, and India are still not satisfactory. Africa and South America have not yet started.

Looking forward to 2011-2015, although the global PV market will continue to maintain high growth, the growth rate will slow down in the coming years. Since the global economy after the financial crisis is still not stable, coupled with the turbulent situation in the Middle East and North Africa, Japan’s nuclear power crisis, the task of finding market growth points is still urgent, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to be high, but it must become a renewable energy source that keeps pace with wind power. Power also requires a long period of effort.

Driven by the market demand, the scale of China's photovoltaic industry chain has been formed. China has basically mastered the key technologies in various aspects of the industrial chain, and the process of localization has been accelerating. In 2010, the output of solar cell modules in China rose to 10 GW, which accounted for 45% of the world's total. The output of solar cells for the fourth consecutive year ranked first in the world. As of 2010, China’s cumulative installed PV modules reached 900 MW, ranking top 10 in the world. . However, the output of thin-film batteries is still very small, and the industrialization of silicon-based thin-film batteries is still in the early stages of development.

In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” (discussion draft) formulated by the National Energy Administration in the near future, it is proposed that the photovoltaic power generation in 2015 will reach 10 GW, the medium-sized desert grid-connected power station will be 5 GW, and the urban-rural grid-connected power station will have 3 GW. Watts, other off-grid and distributed generation 2 GW development goals. By then, China may become one of the largest markets for photovoltaic power generation in the world.

However, there are still some problems with photovoltaic power generation. The first is the manufacturing sector, which is characterized by insufficient investment in photovoltaic R&D, blind expansion, backward production capacity, severe redundant construction, lack of sustainable and clean development concepts, and so on. Second, the market segment shows the lack of support for market development, that is, lack of long-term development goals. The cost of power generation is too high.

Photovoltaic industry can learn from the wind power experience from the world and China's wind power, photovoltaic power level, the difference between the two about 5-6 years. It seems that, in addition to the problem of high cost of power generation still needs to be resolved, photovoltaic power generation already has the preconditions for the development of wind power since 2005.

Vigorously exploiting the domestic photovoltaic power generation market has become an urgent task. It needs to learn useful lessons from the development of wind power and start with the introduction of incentive policies and create a market environment. In particular, it must establish practical and viable development goals and price policies that safeguard the interests of all parties. The regulatory mechanism for power generation and access to the Internet; at the same time, it will continue to promote the development of the industry and drive down the cost of photovoltaic power generation. The specific recommendations are as follows:

The first is to organize industry experts, enterprises, and power grids and other relevant stakeholders as soon as possible to jointly formulate photovoltaic power generation industry and market development plans, and formulate plans to put forward the goal of photovoltaic power generation market development and cost reduction. The implementation plan for the development target of the photovoltaic power generation market was proposed, including the large-scale photovoltaic grid-connected grid, the million-kilometre rooftop plan, and the plan for photovoltaic power generation in the unpowered area.

Second, starting in 2011, the government began to implement a fixed electricity price policy with resource differences and cost reduction drivers, dividing the eastern, central and western regions, and subsidizing photovoltaic power generation by integrating on-grid electricity into the renewable energy power generation cost sharing plan. And subsidies.

The third is to formulate and introduce a distributed generation implementation policy to encourage industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises to install and use photovoltaic power generation systems, first to use their own power or direct supply, and to use the surplus part for access to the electricity, or to use electricity generated by the grid in accordance with national regulations. Fixed electricity price acquisition.

Fourth, as soon as possible, the state will issue power grid companies to purchase renewable energy power generation and quotas for renewable energy power consumption in various regions, establish a quota trading mechanism, balance transactions between North and South, balance transactions between regions, and use renewable energy for purchases. Energy energy can be included in the local carbon intensity index.

The fifth is to put forward the carbon intensity assessment index of the average unit generation of large-scale power generation companies. Large-scale power generation companies can realize their carbon intensity indicators by developing wind power, solar power generation, and other renewable energy power generation or clean energy power generation or purchasing renewable energy power generation indicators.

Sixthly, ** and other agencies in the country have urged the SERC to organize inspections on renewable energy power generation on the Internet to detect and supervise power grid enterprises to solve wind power, photovoltaic power generation cannot be connected to the Internet, or access to the Internet is not timely, or wind is abandoned or light is not generated, and Renewable energy ** can not be fully in place and delayed issues.

Seventhly, the national government shall regularly check the effectiveness of the use of renewable energy development, evaluate after the use of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and other projects, and establish an assessment mechanism based on the effect of total power generation and average power generation subsidies as an indicator. The effectiveness of the use of renewable energy ** urges companies and governments not only to focus on generating power, but also to focus on generating capacity and generating efficiency.