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40% increase with zero inventory
Where there is oppression, there is resistance. After experiencing the financial crisis, industrial capital began a new round of expansion. "In the second half of 2008 to the end of last year, due to the uncertain economic development prospects, investment confidence has declined, and many projects that should be launched have been suspended. This is especially true for foreign-invested enterprises and private enterprises. But once the concerns are dispelled, The actions of these activists to resume their investment are also amazing," Wu Bolin said.
The speed of recovery in the manufacturing industry has made machine tool companies unpredictable. At the Nanjing show in April, entrepreneurs said that the supply of products was in short supply, and the biggest problem now is production capacity. Indeed, some companies have no sales and a large backlog of ordinary machine tools and economical CNC machine tools that were backlogged during the financial crisis. As soon as I learned that I entered 2010, the peaks and turns.
A person in charge of a large state-owned enterprise told the reporter: "Not only the sales of high-end CNC machine tools are very good, but even ordinary machine tools are very tight. Originally, these products (ordinary machine tools) will be eliminated in this round of product structure adjustment, now have to æ¡Get up. Customers have to meet our needs."
Looking back at history, Wu Bolin said: "This situation has never been seen before. Many enterprises even have zero inventory." According to the latest statistics of the association, in the first five months, the output value and sales revenue of the machine tool industry exceeded 180 billion yuan, respectively. 41% and 42%, exports and imported machine tools also increased by 38% and 41% respectively.
Such rapid growth, called "blowout" can not be overemphasized. As for the cause of the blowout, Wu Berlin believes that there are the following points.
First, the analysis of the market composition of machine tool products, the automotive industry accounts for half of the country. It can be said that the car is booming. It is precisely in the past 2009 that China's automobile production exceeded 10 million, which was the first in the world.
Recently, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released the latest production and sales data in Beijing. Zhu Yiping, Assistant Secretary General of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said at the press conference: "With the rapid growth of automobile production and sales, the overall economic efficiency of the industry continues to improve, and the fixed asset investment of the automotive industry maintains a high growth." In view of the fact that the domestic automobile industry is booming in production and sales, this year's sales target of 15 million vehicles has not been much difficult.
Second, the key projects in the 4 trillion yuan investment constitute support for the machine tool market. Although the government's bailout investment plan was released in 2008, the transmission of investment results will take time, and the first half of this year is a time node.
Third, the transfer of investment needs. Given the uncertainties in the real estate industry, it is not ruled out that some of the capital invested in the industry has been transferred to manufacturing, and investment in manufacturing has to buy equipment, including machine tools.
Fourth, the international market is picking up. After the crisis, all countries in the world have actively rescued the market. Now, with the end of the downward trend in Europe and the United States and the rise of developing countries, the demand in the international market is also growing. Of course, there may be iterations, but at least in the first half of the year.
The above positive factors are intertwined and superimposed, which together have made the unprecedented rapid development of China's machine tool industry.
Perhaps a short-lived blowout
The situation in the first half of the year seemed optimistic, but Wu Bolin could not get rid of his worries. "This development has not shaken off the shadow of economies of scale, and it will not last for the growth of quantity," he said.
Compared with the international advanced ratio, the gap in China's machine tool industry is not covered by surface prosperity: First, most of the domestic high-end products are still foreign products, domestic high-end machine tools are still not competitive, and the machine tool industry still has a deficit of several billion dollars; Second, the output value and sales increased in both directions. In 2009, the industry's profit did not rise and fell. This shows that under the economic stimulus policy, repeated development methods such as repeated construction still exist; third, the "brain" and "four limbs" of the machine tool. , that is, the numerical control system and the main functional components and tools, still lagging behind the whole machine, R&D and independent innovation...
Even if it is back to simple data, the second half of the year is not the same as the first half. At the beginning of this year, the machine tool association experts judged the market for the whole year: 10% growth. "Now, it may be necessary to correct it. After all, the hot situation in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, although the second half will slow down, but the whole year 15 The growth rate of % is still expected." Wu Berlin believes.
Combined with the growth rate of more than 40% in the first five months, Wu Bolin’s implication is that the second half of the year may be basically the same as last year. After all, the popularity of ordinary lathes and milling machines does not coincide with the industry trend of industrial structure and product structure adjustment.
Wu Bolin told the China Industry News reporter: "This morning, I attended a meeting of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. I talked about the operation of the machine tool-related industries. It is not very optimistic. The steel industry, raw material prices, coupled with overcapacity, companies have not The power of the equipment is updated; in the automotive industry, the order quantity has also declined, and the growth rate is expected to slow down; and due to exchange rate adjustment, the export-oriented manufacturing industry will also decline."
For the slowdown in growth that may occur in the second half of the year, machine tool companies are not entirely unpredictable. In fact, at the Nanjing Exhibition in April and the Beijing Exhibition in June, many corporate executives expressed their embarrassment about extraordinary development. The blowout seems to have been doomed from the start. This is the law of the industry, and the entrepreneurs who have experienced the industrial cycle are in the same spirit as the mirror.
How to develop after the surprise? Wu Berlin believes that two things should be noted.
First of all, don't be disturbed by the phenomenon in the first half of the year, shaking the belief in product structure adjustment. In the past two years, under the influence of the reverse mechanism, the company's product structure adjustment has achieved certain results, which is reflected in the high-end CNC products, and the value of the single platform has gone up. However, the gap with the international advanced level is obvious.
Secondly, in the structural adjustment, we must study and solve the deep-seated problems, and we cannot be led by the market. Ordinary machine tools have a market, and of course they should also meet the demand, but it is not enough to stay at this level. Not only to meet the market, but also to guide the market.
Just as Zhang Xiangmu, director of the Equipment Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at an industry conference not long ago: "Development should be moderate, don't focus on speed, structure should be transformed, and growth depends on quality."
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Machine tool industry: the first half of the market will be slower in the second half of the year
Although the machine tool industry is hot in the first half of the year, the industry is not optimistic about the future. On July 14, Wu Bolin, executive vice chairman of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, said in an interview with reporters: "In fact, since May, orders received by enterprises have started to decline significantly. This is not seen from the statistics. But at least a few key companies are like this."