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A new round of loose currency signs show that China’s interest rate hike is expected to cool significantly
In order to resist the "secondary recession", central banks in developed countries have maintained or regained loose monetary policy. At the same time, the economic slowdown has gradually replaced inflation as the main economic worries of emerging economies, and the slowdown in growth will also ease the pressure on demand for national prices, prompting some central banks to consider easing. The signs of a new round of loose monetary policy in the world are becoming increasingly apparent. The Turkish central bank took the lead in lowering interest rates on August 4, and on August 31, Brazil also announced a rate cut. With the shift in monetary policy in some overseas economies, the interest rate hike in the domestic market has recently dropped significantly. More experts and institutions believe that, at least in the near term, China's monetary policy should be based on observation. Wang Dashu, a professor at the School of Economics at Peking University, said that China is currently facing a dilemma. On the one hand, the pressure of rising prices is still relatively prominent, and China's reserve ratio has also been raised to a higher level. However, quantitative tools have not played a good role in curbing price increases. On the other hand, the international economic recovery is slow, and the domestic economic growth rate is also facing a downturn. It is not conducive to stable economic growth. Therefore, whether to raise interest rates should first observe the economic situation at home and abroad and then make a decision. Zheng Chaoyu, a professor at the School of Economics of Renmin University, believes that China’s economy is still in a recovery phase, and that China’s interest rates are higher than in many countries. A rush to raise interest rates may lead to more hot money inflows. Since there is no marketization of interest rates in China, it is possible to achieve the same effect as raising interest rates directly by controlling the amount of credit. Liu Xiahui, a researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the price hike may slow down in the second half of the year, and monetary policy may not be further tightened. Minsheng Securities believes that it will not raise interest rates in the third quarter, and gives the following four reasons: First, the current relative interest rate is higher than 2008, and the rate hike may be overdone. Second, according to the current real interest rate of funds and the affordability of enterprises, the possibility of raising interest rates again is small. Third, domestic demand slowed down, the European and American economies were weak, and exports may decline in the fourth quarter. Fourth, the domestic CPI decline trend formed.