Third quarter data released in mid-October

The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI and PPI data for September on October 14. A press conference will be held on the 18th to announce the main economic data for the third quarter. However, from the current situation, the overall situation of China's macroeconomic operation has been determined: this year's economic growth rate will remain above 9%, and annual inflation is expected to be controlled at around 5%.

Under the series of macro policies that continue to tighten monetary policy, the Chinese economy has shown a slowdown in growth this year. According to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first half of the year increased by 9.6% year-on-year, of which the second quarter increased by 9.5% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the 9.7% in the first quarter. The initial growth rate of GDP in 2010 was 10.4%.

For the third quarter GDP growth rate, the market is generally expected to continue to fall. In its latest report, CITIC Securities pointed out that GDP growth in the third quarter is expected to fall to 9.2%. Industrial growth in September will increase by about 13.3% year-on-year, and industrial production growth will continue to fall.

The reason is that CITIC Securities believes that there are two aspects: First, due to the tight policy, the company is in a tight liquidity, the construction progress of large-scale projects such as high-speed rail is still slowing down; on the other hand, the external economy has experienced significant turmoil and commodity prices continue. Falling back, the company's inventory replenishment power is significantly reduced.

Although there is still a quarter from the end of 2011, and the Chinese economy has shown a trend of slowing down quarter by quarter in the first three quarters, the economic growth rate remains at a reasonable range, which is the overall situation.

Lu Zhongyuan, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said on the 28th that China’s economic growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was over 9%, which is within a reasonable range determined by growth potential. It is expected that the annual economic growth rate will still exceed 9%. Economic growth will be slightly adjusted back next year, but it is still within a reasonable range.

Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC Greater China, also believes that although China's economic growth continues to slow down, it will still be in the 8% to 9% range this year and next. Even if the global economy is in a second recession, China can only “guarantee eight” by increasing the financial investment in social housing and reducing taxes for SMEs.

In addition, since food prices have rebounded since September, the market generally predicts that CPI will remain at a high level of around 6.2% in September. However, analysts believe that the CPI will continue to fall in the fourth quarter, and inflation is expected to be controlled at around 5% throughout the year.  

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