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Iron ore index welcomes "China label"
[Core Tip:] The "China Iron Ore Price Index" program will begin trial operation and is expected to begin to function around 2014. With the changes in the pricing power of iron ore in the future, for domestic enterprises, the investment opportunities for iron ore will also increase, and the golden age of iron ore investment will gradually open. China's iron ore price index is expected to play a role in 2014. The iron ore index, which was led by China Steel Association, is scheduled to start trial operation this month. For this new index, one of the experts in the compilation team admits that the "China Iron Ore Price Index" will really work, and I am afraid that it will wait until the global iron ore supply and demand structure is reversed. The current industry expectation for this point is after 2014. The reporter was informed that the China Iron and Steel Association established the "Iron Ore Index Preparation Group" and held a meeting with the Mining Association and the Metallurgical Information Center in late July to convene major domestic steel mills and industry information agencies to solicit proposals for the preparation of the plan. According to the published preliminary plan, the "China Iron Ore Price Index" consists of two parts: "domestic mine index" and "import mine index". The former is based on the calculation of dry iron concentrates in 14 provinces, autonomous regions and 32 mining areas; the latter is based on the data of the member companies of the Steel Concord Minmetals Chamber of Commerce, and refers to the import of 8 domestic ports imported iron ore market. Price as the basic data. Finally, the weighted calculation of the "China Iron Ore Price Index". The index will be released on a weekly basis and is scheduled to be commissioned in August and officially launched in October. The index faces many challenges and such an index, the challenges to be faced will be multifaceted. The first is the timeliness caused by the lack of manpower. Whether it is the main index Platinum index currently adopted by the iron ore pricing formula, or the index that is popular in other markets, it is released on a daily basis, reflecting the daily turnover in real time. This is also the data basis for the development of large mines towards full spot trading. The China Index, led by China Steel Association, is only released once a week, and it is relatively backward in terms of timeliness. "Because the manpower is not enough." The insiders of the China Iron and Steel Association told reporters that the core members of the compilation team are less than 10 people, and no one has had any experience in index preparation. Compared with the current data collection team of the mainstream steel information agencies claiming hundreds of people, the lack of manpower is evident. This is also the reason why the "My Steel" network was invited to introduce the index situation at a steel industry conference held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the beginning of the year. Secondly, Sinosteel has been a representative body for the interests of Chinese steel companies, and its "non-third party" status has been questioned. In the reply email, Hua Dawei, senior director of business development for Platts Asia Pacific, said that as the benchmark price for global iron ore trading, the first thing to do is to maintain a neutral position. "If an index is to succeed, it must be recognized by market participants and must be proven to be neutral and objective, and will not favor any party in the industry, be it the buyer or the seller." At the same time, the index needs to be "transparent." Valuation system and confirmation of the reliability of information to all parties in the market." Finally, the fundamental factor in determining iron ore prices is the relationship between supply and demand, rather than which index to choose. Therefore, in the current global iron ore supply is still tight, and the upstream mines have a very high degree of monopoly, the index is only a reflection of the market, and can not change the market. That is to say, even if the iron ore pricing formula now adopts the China index, it still cannot change the situation of high mine prices. Strive to issue a Chinese voice One of the experts in the index compilation team said in a conversation with reporters about this topic, the China Iron and Steel Association also knows the various flaws facing the "China Index." Especially in the case that the foreign index represented by Platts is quite mature, whether the "China Index" led by China Steel Association is necessary is necessary, and there has been a fierce debate within the China Steel Association. However, the parties concerned finally decided to proceed with the preparation. The core idea was to "issue the Chinese voice." "China is the world's largest demander of iron ore and must have our own voice. Even if the current impact is very limited, it can be promoted to major steel mills to accumulate market influence and then gradually introduce it to the mine. Adhere to the fact that when the global iron ore supply and demand structure is reversed, the 'China Index' may actually play a role," said the expert. According to the situation of mine expansion in the next few years and the demand for iron ore, it is predicted that the supply and demand structure of ore will be reversed around 2014, from the current seller market to the buyer market. According to this, some Steel Association people's idea is that when China as a demand side can gradually take the initiative, the "China Index" that has been operating for several years and gradually mature will be useful. The iron ore's gold investment era has just just begun. The Big Three will have the absolute control of iron ore in a long period of time. From the supply pattern, the iron ore market has been in an oligopolistic pattern, and the three giants produce iron ore every year. Stone accounts for 30% of global production, and basically controls its domestic and international shipping ports and international shipping channels, monopolizing more than 70% of the international iron ore seaborne trade volume. And after three or five years, their control of global iron ore is not weakened but strengthened, and its control over prices will be further strengthened. Domestic iron ore pricing power has been completely transferred, domestic mines only serve as stabilizers for international mining prices. Although China has become the country with the largest amount of ore production and the country with the largest demand for ore, it cannot have a significant impact on the international market price of iron ore. The pricing power of iron ore has been completely transferred. On the contrary, when the price of iron ore falls systematically, the price elasticity of large-scale domestically produced large-scale domestically produced mines will rapidly reduce the market supply, thereby preventing further price declines, thus making domestic minerals more stable as international mineral prices. Device. China's huge crude steel capacity can't stop the "craving" of iron ore. In 2012, China's blast furnace ironmaking capacity will be close to 800 million tons. The large-scale blast furnace of normal operation will have to consume nearly 1.28 billion tons of refined per year. Mines, compared with China's annual production capacity of less than 600 million tons of iron concentrate, the high dependence on imports is difficult to fundamentally reverse for a long period of time, and China's demand will continue to lead the world. India will become a major importer of iron ore in a few years. It is estimated that with the gradual expansion of the domestic blast furnace in India, it is likely to turn from the world's third largest exporter of iron ore to a major importer of iron ore in a few years! It is conceivable that if more than 100 million tons of iron ore exported by India are not available in a few years, on the contrary, it will import 1-2 billion tons or more, which will have a major impact on the international iron ore market. The iron ore industry has entered a period of stable economy. The iron ore industry has entered such a stable period. Global demand and supply have maintained a small increase. The supply and demand pattern has maintained its current trend for a long period of time. The price of minerals will remain stable. Iron ore and steel will remain stable. The upstream and downstream profit distribution pattern has basically formed and been consolidated, and the iron mining industry will continue to prosper for a long time. Investing in A-share mining company Fangxing did not classify A-share mining companies into four categories: one is pure iron ore listed companies, such as Jinling Mining and Pangang Vanadium and Titanium; the other is listed companies that enjoy iron ore investment income. For example, Guangdong Pearl, Fangda Carbon, etc.; Third, the original steel and steel smelting enterprises formed after the injection of iron ore into the ore integration company, such as Xining Special Steel, Linggang, etc.; Fourth, the group has iron ore resources, there is an injection Expected companies, such as Shougang, Hebei Iron and Steel.