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What fine-tuning of macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year
What changes will be made in the economic policy in the second half of the year? There are reports that the central bank said that monetary policy will not loosen in the second half of the year. This statement is quite strange. The central bank frequently raised the deposit reserve ratio in the first half of the year and raised interest rates several times. Will this approach continue in the second half of the year? Certainly not. Because new contradictions, new problems, and new situations have emerged, the central bank has no room for manoeuvre, and policy fine-tuning is imperative. On the whole, the central bank's policy fine-tuning is only a small piece in the overall situation. In the second half of the year, there are nine key tasks to be grasped. This determines the future policy direction. It is necessary to consider these nine aspects and the links between them. Because only by considering these issues, we can discover the possibility of policy adjustment and the future direction. The first is the price issue. Stabilizing prices is the primary task of macroeconomic regulation in the second half of the year. The central government proposed to strengthen government responsibilities, strengthen market security, reduce circulation costs, rectify market price order, and take effective and effective rescue measures for people in need. From these expressions, it is clear that in addition to the monetary factor, the price problem caused by the deformed market and the distorted price will be the focus of remediation in the future. Followed by the agricultural issue. We will seize the bumper harvest of agriculture throughout the year, do a good job in the production of autumn grain, promote the stable development of livestock and aquaculture industries such as pigs, strengthen the construction of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, and do a good job in flood control and disaster reduction. These measures will have an important guarantee for stabilizing prices in the second half of the year and consumer prices for some time to come, especially to ensure food production and pig breeding. Therefore, increasing investment in this area will be determinable. The third is the real estate issue. Here, it also needs to be subdivided into two parts: house price regulation and social housing construction. The central government has proposed that we must adhere to the unwavering determination of control, the direction is not changed, and the strength is not relaxed, and we must resolutely curb the excessive rise in housing prices. There is a mystery here, mainly to curb the excessive rise in house prices rather than suppressing house prices. In terms of affordable housing, emphasis is placed on ensuring construction plans, ensuring construction quality and ensuring fair distribution. The meaning is not simple. The fourth is the problem of domestic demand growth. From the data of the first half of the year, consumer demand is declining, and the situation is not optimistic. In the second half of the year, we must improve policies to promote consumption, improve the consumption environment, promote the sustained and rapid development of private investment, optimize the investment structure, effectively play the role of fiscal and financial policies, optimize the credit structure, and strengthen financial supervision. It is clear that the growth of consumption and private investment requires the active support of fiscal and monetary policies. The fifth is the issue of structural adjustment. The central government proposed to make great efforts to accelerate the structural adjustment, actively cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, promote the upgrading of traditional industrial structures, support the development of service industries, improve the development environment of small enterprises, and promote regional coordinated development. Here, it involves both regions and industries, involving both traditional industries and strategic emerging industries. Therefore, active support from fiscal and monetary policies is also needed. The sixth is the issue of energy conservation and emission reduction. In the first half of the year, energy conservation in eight regions was classified as a first-level warning, and the situation was grim. The rise in the proportion of heavy chemical industry also indicates aggravation of structural adjustment difficulties. Therefore, the central government proposed that we should not do a good job of energy conservation and emission reduction, clarify the target responsibilities of governments at all levels, establish a sound and effective incentive and restraint mechanism, and strengthen the role of enterprises. This will have a direct impact on the industry trend in the second half of the year. The seventh is the import and export issue. Judging from the situation in the first half of the year, the year-on-year growth of imports and exports is in a downward channel, and the situation is not optimistic. Therefore, the central government has proposed to continuously improve the level of opening up to the outside world, maintain a basically stable foreign trade policy, promote stable export growth, actively expand imports, effectively use foreign capital, and promote enterprises to go global. These are all expansionary requirements and also require coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Its eight and nine are reforms in key areas and improving people's livelihood issues. It includes reforms in the fields of medicine and health, resources and environment, finance and taxation, agriculture, and cultural systems, as well as promoting employment and entrepreneurship, improving the social security system, accelerating the development of social undertakings such as education, culture, and health, and maintaining social harmony and stability. These two aspects of work involve a wide range of topics, the content is very complex, and also require policy support. From this point of view, how can the macroeconomic policy in the second half of the year be tight? Especially in the case of new changes in the domestic and international environment, it is even less likely that, as in the first half of the year, although liquidity has been tightened, prices have risen more quickly, causing a "money shortage" in the society. Therefore, only by adopting a more flexible, more targeted and forward-looking policy can we win the initiative and grasp the fighters. Inferred in this way, policy fine-tuning is very natural and inevitable. Â