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Since March of this year, the provinces of Zhejiang, Hunan, Chongqing and Guizhou have experienced problems of tight power supply and declining coal reserves. At present, the “electricity shortage†has swept most southern provinces, as well as some provinces in East China, North China and even the Northwest. In the face of the upcoming summer electricity peak, some provinces are expected to face unprecedented power shortages, and the power gap may widen further. The China Electricity Council said on the 17th that this is the biggest "electricity shortage" that China has faced since 2004. The scope and depth are unprecedented. It is conservatively estimated that the national power supply gap is about 30 million kilowatts, equivalent to two Anhui or The total amount of electricity generated by three Chongqing. In Japan, which is currently suffering from a power shortage due to the nuclear leakage crisis and the reduction in nuclear power supply, the maximum power gap that it may expect is only 10 million to 15 million kilowatts. Therefore, Japan’s Sankei Shimbun commented on the 18th that China’s power shortage is “difficult to be several times that of Japanâ€. “A historic power shortage is testing China’s nerves.â€
The rise in coal prices is seen as one of the main reasons for this “electricity shortageâ€. As domestic energy demand continues to expand, domestic coal prices continue to rise, and prices even “overhang†beyond the international market. Some domestic public opinion said that "China's high coal prices have been suspended in the air for the past few years." "Sankei Shimbun" commented that China's power procurement system is currently taking "half-way liberalization", that is, the price of coal raw materials is released, but the price of electricity is still strictly controlled. The price of coal-fired electricity is seriously out of line, thus causing coal. The "price scissors difference" between electricity and electricity is one of the fundamental reasons for the "electricity shortage" in China. The US "Wall Street Journal" said on the 18th that the current drought in the Yangtze River Basin has led to a decline in hydropower capacity, making the "electricity shortage" even more serious. Relevant experts from the State Grid Corporation also said that if hydropower capacity is affected by drought, then the national electricity in summer The gap may further expand to more than 40 million kilowatts.
In addition, China's expanding energy consumption, economic overheating and “unhealthy energy structure†are also seen as the main reasons for the “electricity shortageâ€. "Japan Economic News" said on the 18th that China's most economically and industrially developed regions in the past decade are also the regions with the most intense contradiction between power supply and demand. China's huge economic sector, large-scale industries with high energy consumption levels are continuing to eat. The cake of power supply growth." The US "Wall Street Journal" believes that China's energy production is too dependent on the "basket" of coal power generation, which is obviously unfavorable for dealing with the increasingly frequent international energy crisis. At present, China's coal-fired power accounts for more than 80% of electric energy production, while the United States, Japan and other countries are about 45% and 50%.
In the case of an increase in the “electricity shortage†and a sudden increase in the cost of power generation, the price increase again was urgently put on the agenda. Although the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission currently said that there is no clear plan for raising electricity prices nationwide, on the 18th, it was reported that the National Development and Reform Commission is planning to increase the price of thermal power on-grid in Jiangxi, Hunan and Guizhou provinces, and increase electricity by 2 cents per kilowatt hour. Japan’s “Current Affairs Finance†commented on May 18 that China is facing inflationary pressures. Since power supply is at the basic stage of the entire social and economic structure, if it is not handled well, the impact on the economic expectations of the entire society is enormous.
Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, told the Global Times that in the face of power shortage, reform is the key to turning the grid company into an entity and establishing a modern enterprise system, enabling the company to trade independently, investing more entities and breaking the past grid. The company monopolizes and does not assume the responsibility of both buyers and sellers. Moreover, local governments should participate in power procurement and electricity price setting so that problems can be solved step by step.
In recent years, due to the rise in international energy prices and other reasons, similar power supply shortages have appeared in some countries around the world. The British "Daily Telegraph" reported at the beginning of the year that the current structural lack of energy and the contradiction between supply and demand are becoming a more normal global problem. This contradiction is particularly prominent for emerging economies with rapid economic development. At present, as far as the domestic electricity prices in western developed countries are concerned, the overall situation is at a relatively stable level. The current average national electricity bill in the United States is 9.83 cents per kWh. In 2011, the French national electricity price was 0.08 euros per kWh. Most of the electricity prices of foreign power companies are directly linked to fuel costs. Due to the recent rise in oil prices, power companies in various countries have strengthened the "additional adjustment of fuel prices" to electricity prices. For example, Japan has been implementing a charging system for basic electricity and fuel prices. Three months to develop a "basket index" based on international coal, oil and natural gas prices, according to which the electricity tariffs are appropriately adjusted.
At present, domestic coal-deficient provinces mainly adopt power cut-off and peak-peak electricity to adjust production, and try to reduce the huge pressure caused by insufficient power supply to the manufacturing industry. Analysts believe that the current power shortage will have a serious negative impact on China's domestic economy in the current shortage of electricity and the “expansion†of coal shortages in various provinces. The US "Wall Street Journal" believes that heavy chemical and smelting enterprises with high power consumption will be most directly damaged in the possible large-scale power cuts. However, if this situation continues, the damage of the light industry sector and the service sector will be damaged. It will also be higher than expected.
"Japan Economic News" uses "the pain of steel companies" to describe the impact of power-limiting measures on China's heavy industry. The commentary said that the earthquake in the early period of Japan caused the steel companies to stop production a lot, and the huge losses may be repeated in the Chinese steel giants such as Baosteel. The impact of “electricity shortage†on the economic industry was also reflected in the stock market. On the 17th and 18th, the domestic stock market coal energy enterprises led the broad market, occupying the top of the increase list, and announced the state-owned power enterprises and steel enterprises with serious losses. And the non-ferrous financial enterprise sector fell sharply.
The power gap is several times that of Japan’s rare “electricity shortage†or dragging down the economy.
Recently, China’s domestic “electricity shortage†has intensified, and the shortage of coal reserves and the intensification of power supply and demand have plagued more and more provinces. The China Electricity Council said on the 17th that this “electricity shortage†is the worst since 2004. Once, and its severity is "not yet bottomed out." Foreign public opinion is also very concerned about how China will overcome the difficulty of power shortage under the dual pressure of domestic inflation and rising international energy prices.