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May economic data released CPI today or fell back to 3.2%
According to the National Bureau of Statistics' 2012 statistical information release schedule, today (9th) will release economic data such as the May consumer price index, industrial producer price index, fixed asset investment, real estate investment and sales, and total retail sales of consumer goods. . Multi-agency and economists generally expect that the CPI in May will fall from the 3.4% in April due to the seasonal decline in food prices and the slight decrease in the hikes. The increase is expected to be around 3.2%. The central bank suddenly announced a rate cut on the 7th, which means that data on fixed asset investment, import and export, and industrial added value are not optimistic. CPI continues to fall back into a foregone conclusion. In the future, it is expected to retreat from "3" to "2". Recently, "Garlic You" has made a comeback. In some areas, the retail price of garlic has reached 8 yuan / kg; at the same time, the price of eggs around the country has soared from 3.5 yuan / Jin jumped to 5 yuan / kg, turned into a "rocket egg." Although the price of eggs and garlic soared, other food prices did not show a fierce gain. The food monitoring data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on June 4th showed that 14 of the 27 foods showed a downward trend compared with mid-May, with the largest decline in vegetables, and the price of beans and cucumbers dropped by more than 10%. Among the rising food categories, except for the increase in the number of eggs, which was 6.2% higher than the previous period, the other increase was around 1%. A number of domestic research institutes recently released a macro report that, despite the recent surge in prices of individual foods such as eggs and garlic, CPI will fall below the 3.2% level in May this year, and individual institutions believe that CPI may fall below 3%. According to the "Economic Information Daily" report, China Merchants Securities forecast a CPI increase of -0.1% in May, an increase of 3.1%. Bank of Communications predicted that CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year in May, and Nisshin Securities, Huatai United Securities and Bohai Securities were forecast to rise 3.2%. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the 8th, reducing the price of gasoline and diesel by 530 yuan and 510 yuan per ton respectively. Lin Boqiang, director of the Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com's financial channel that the decline in refined oil products is within the forecast range, and the sharply lowered price of refined oil products will also benefit domestic CPI. Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, said: "We expect CPI growth to fall back to 3.1% in May, and will continue to decline or even 'break 3' in June and July. The stability of the price situation has relieved the interest rate cuts." Macroeconomic data Or still low central bank asymmetric interest rate cuts to help stabilize growth. According to data released by the Statistics Bureau, the PMI (China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index) fell sharply to 50.4 in May, falling to the edge of the economic contraction zone. For other macro data to be released, the market expectation is also not optimistic, and the investment data may even fall below the 20% threshold of “appropriate investment growthâ€. The Economic Information Daily reported that China Merchants Securities forecast a year-on-year growth rate of 19.6% for fixed-asset investment from January to May. The forecast report released by it pointed out that the NDRC has clearly denied the possibility of introducing a large-scale stimulus plan, and the real estate control policy has not been significantly loosened. At the same time, considering the time lag effect of the recent approval of new projects, the overall fixed investment growth rate is expected to maintain a downward trend in the short term. According to the monthly interest rate strategy issued by CICC, the PPI in May was positively negative, down to -1.5%. Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, expects imports and exports to rebound from last month, but still within 10%. The industrial added value is expected to rebound slightly, but the growth rate is still in single digits and there will be no substantial improvement. Since May, the central government has adopted a downward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio of 50 basis points, speeding up the approval of infrastructure investment projects, and accelerating the central government's support for project investment and other means to stabilize growth. Prior to this, the Ministry of Communications, the Ministry of Railways, the Ministry of Health, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Sixth Committee of the China Banking Regulatory Commission successively issued the “New 36 Articles†implementation rules. Since entering June, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Taxation have also expressed their support for the development of private investment. On the evening of the 7th, the central bank suddenly announced the first interest rate cut after three and a half years, lowered the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points, and relaxed control over the floating range of deposit and loan interest rates. Some analysts said that this move may mean that the data to be released is not optimistic. "China Securities Journal" reported on the 8th that Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, believes that the central bank's anti-conventional work rate cuts to release steady growth signals (previously rate hikes are generally chosen after weekends or holidays), indicating the economy The data may be far worse than expected, and the risk of a hard landing is increasing. Shen Jianguang pointed out that the central bank's interest rate cuts mean that monetary policy has changed from stable to loose, and further stimulus policies may be launched one after another. The key to stable growth lies in stable investment. It is expected that more policies will be introduced to support investment in the future.