Analysis of Macro-environment Prediction of Cement Industry in 2012

On January 27, 2011, the State Council promulgated eight real estate control policies for the new country, clearly defined the price control targets, extended the scope of purchases more widely and more severely, comprehensively upgraded financial, taxation, and land policies, implemented the accountability mechanism for appointments, and ensured that relevant policies were put in place. . Subsequently, several concrete supporting policies were successively introduced: real estate tax reform (Shanghai, Chongqing pilot), a new round of “restricted purchase” policy, “price control target”, second-tier and third-tier cities purchase restriction, and so on. The introduction of the property tax and the “State of the Eight” formed the “8+2” policy pattern. The strength, density, and time for the introduction of the policy all exceeded expectations and had a superposition effect; the purchase restriction policy had a significant impact on the demand of related cities. In general, there are two general policy objectives for real estate regulation in 2011: First, to squeeze out investment speculation in the real estate market, especially in the housing market; second, to curb excessive growth in house prices and control housing prices at a reasonable level.

Under the tight monetary policy, the new country and the supporting policies behind the new country have brought about a very significant impact on the real estate market. Looking at the development of the real estate market in 2011, we can see several distinctive features: the supply and demand relationship has changed, The prices of housing prices and the year-on-year increase decreased; the second-hand housing market experienced a declining trend; the turnover in the land market was low; the volume of residential land prices was lower than the same period of last year; the proportion of self-raised funds in the total fund sources increased, and some real estate companies experienced capital chain tensions. The increase in the investment in the construction of affordable housing has increased the impact on the market; the structural characteristics of real estate market adjustment have been obvious.

The Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2011 pointed out that the keynote of the policy in 2012 was changed from “defending inflation, adjusting the structure, maintaining growth” to “stabilizing growth, controlling price, adjusting the structure” this year, and “stabilizing growth” In the first place. The regulation of real estate will not be significantly loosened. The meeting proposed to “grasp well the investment, construction, operation, and management of affordable housing, and gradually solve the housing problems of low-income urban residents, new employees, and migrant workers. We must adhere to the real estate regulation and control policy, and we must not shake it. Promote the reasonable return of housing prices, accelerate the construction of ordinary commercial housing, expand effective supply, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market." On January 31, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council stressed at the sixth plenary session of the State Council that it is necessary to consolidate the real estate market regulation results, strictly implement the property market regulation and control measures, and continue to strictly implement and gradually improve policies and measures to curb speculative investment demand and promote Reasonable return prices. Take effective measures to increase the supply of ordinary commercial housing. Do a good job of construction and management of affordable housing. His attitude is also highly consistent with the Central Economic Work Conference last December. This shows that real estate regulation and control will continue the momentum of 2011 and consolidate the results of the regulation. Before the tax and other long-term mechanisms work, the possibility of current measures to relax is relatively small.

The regulation and control policies of the real estate industry have led to a rapid decline in real estate investment growth at the end of 2011. In 2012, “adhering to the real estate regulatory policies will not waver” will continue to decline in real estate investment growth. In 2012, the total number of affordable housing starts was set at 7 million units, down from 10 million units in 2011. Although the number of start-ups has been reduced, the overall scale of construction is still large. There is a construction period of 2-3 years or so in the construction of houses. It is estimated that the actual construction in progress will reach 18 million units in 2012. This includes the completion of some new projects in 2009 and will be completed in 2012. The new construction will start in 2011. The vast majority of 10 million units are still under construction in 2012. Therefore, the intensity of social housing construction has not been reduced compared to 2011.

On the whole, the macro environment for cement in 2012 entered the phase of comprehensive structural adjustment. This is both an opportunity and an impetus for the restructuring of the cement industry. From the trend forecast of real estate and infrastructure construction described in 2012 above, it can be seen that the demand side of cement will not drop as clearly as people expect of the macro economy, and the growth rate of demand may have a deceleration, but the rate will not be too great. The continuous imbalance of coal and electricity may cause the continued shortage of coal, electricity, and diesel in 2012, and the price of raw materials will continue to rise. Positive fiscal policies and sound monetary policies will not bring much favorable factors to the cement companies themselves, but they may indirectly increase cement demand.