US oil consumption tops international oil prices and sees "China demand"

On December 14, international oil prices plunged due to concerns about the recession in Europe. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the January low light crude oil contract fell 5.2% to US$94.95 a barrel. The settlement price of ICE December Brent crude oil contract fell by $4.48 to $105.02 per barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects that the global average daily oil demand will increase slightly to about 30 million barrels in 2012, but the increase in oil supply from non-OPEC countries may partially offset this increase.

The sluggish demand in Europe is a foregone conclusion, while the proportion of US oil imports has continued to decline in recent years, and OPEC has begun to adjust its export direction.

The International Energy Agency predicts that between 2010 and 2035, global energy demand will increase by one-third, of which 50% will originate from China and India. The US oil imports will decline due to the increase in domestic production and the improvement of automobile efficiency. By 2015 EU oil imports will exceed the United States, and China will become the world’s largest oil importing country by 2020.

This also indicates that within the next decade, China's demand may become the primary factor in determining the international oil price.

Carlos Pascual, the US State Department’s special envoy for international energy affairs, told the newspaper that the current growth in energy demand in the OECD countries led by the United States is slow, and the growth in demand for crude oil in the international market is mainly due to the growth in China. Developing countries. After the continued decline in the proportion of U.S. crude oil imports, the oil producing countries in the Middle East will also adjust their export direction. China's demand will have a greater impact on international oil prices. It is reported that Pascual is currently responsible for the preparation of the United States State Department of Energy.

According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, in the first nine months of this year, US gasoline, jet fuel and other various fuels exported 750 million barrels, exceeding 690 million barrels in imports. For the first time in 62 years, the United States is expected to become the net product of petroleum products. export country. This data has convinced some optimists that the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia and Russia in the next 10 years to become the world’s largest producer of oil and gas products.

However, Pascual does not believe that the news that the United States has become a net exporter of petroleum products will immediately lead to a drop in international oil prices.

IHS Cambridge Energy Research Institute ** Daniel H. Yergin told this reporter that the U.S. has become more symbolic of the “net exporter of petroleum products” because this “net export” refers to processed petroleum products. The United States is still the world's largest importer of crude oil.

The average daily oil consumption in the United States reached a record of 2,070,000 barrels in 2007, and consumption has declined each year for the next three years. Taking into account the development of new energy and energy-saving technologies in the future, the US oil consumption is likely to have peaked.

Domestic oil production in the United States has continued to decline for more than 30 years since 1971. Utilizing new drilling techniques, US oil production began to pick up in 2009. North Dakota produced 424,000 barrels of oil per day in July this year, an increase of 86% over the same period in 2009. The boom in the oil industry made the state’s unemployment rate the lowest in the United States. In October, the unemployment rate was only 3.5%, far below the national average of 9.1%.

As a result of this shift, since the beginning of 2006, US crude oil imports have continued to decline, and the share of crude oil imports in total consumption has dropped from 60% in 2005 to 47% in 2010. Citibank predicts that the United States will be able to reduce its average daily crude oil imports from the current 10 million barrels to 3 million barrels in the 2020s, and Canada and Mexico alone will be able to meet the demand.