The Obama administration’s RMB exchange rate failed or will pick China’s solar PV problem again

As the US presidential election approaches, the Obama administration, which has been conservatively accused of not taking a hard line on China's RMB exchange rate issue, may have to challenge other fronts, the Asian exporting power.

The United States may file a lawsuit against China at the World Trade Organization (WTO), which may trigger tension between the two economies.

"I expect the United States to file more lawsuits against China next year," said former WTO Appeal Judge James Bacchus, who had previously ruled international trade disputes.

President Obama, who has entered the campaign mode, has recently boasted that he is more tough on trade issues than his predecessor. China, the currency exchange rate and other trade issues have become a major issue in US elections.

MittRomney, who is expected to represent the Republican president, has recently criticized China's wording to become more stringent, although Republicans have traditionally tended to support free trade.

"If you don't want to face China bravely, you will eventually be beaten by China. This is the fact of the past 20 years," the former Massachusetts governor said on Tuesday.

After the U.S. Senate passed the above speech punishing China’s RMB exchange rate undervaluation bill, US congressmen believe that the undervaluation of the RMB exchange rate has caused the United States to lose millions of jobs.

Obama is clamoring for the impact that China will have on American voters. It has not been clearly stated that it will veto the bill. However, this proposal is expected to be unable to pass the House of Representatives because many Republican leaders fear that the bill may violate the World Trade Organization (WTO). ) stipulations, at the same time, fear of triggering a trade war, thereby damaging American companies.

But Obama may want to show voters his enthusiasm for trade issues, and trade experts say he has multiple options, and these options differ from the Senate exchange rate bill in that they are expected to comply with WTO rules.

The latest official data released on Thursday showed that the US trade deficit with China in August reached 29 billion US dollars, a record high, and the annual deficit may also be rewritten, which may increase the pressure on Obama to take action.

US trade officials notified the WTO last week that they had about 200 Chinese government subsidies, and they also condemned the Beijing authorities for not acting in accordance with WTO regulations.

US officials at the WTO headquarters in Geneva have also recently raised questions about China's agricultural policy, saying that foreign suppliers have been unfairly discriminated against.

Bacchus pointed out that a case that may be on the table in the next few months is a complaint against China's rare earth export restrictions; rare earth metals are used in many high-tech and clean energy products.

Jeffrey Schott, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he also believes that US Trade Representative Kirk’s office is preparing for a series of new trade litigations against China.

"I think the US trade representative is acting quickly to ensure that US trade rights are strengthened, and I think this is a key job for the White House," Schott said.

Bacchus mentioned that both Obama and US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner have recently attacked Beijing with a sharper wording to protect US intellectual property rights. In the past, the United States successfully provoked this issue at the WTO, and the timing of further complaints may have matured. .

In addition, US lawmakers have been pressured to take action on the Chinese government's solar PV subsidies and other "green technologies." The issue in this field has been unabashedly placed in the report of the US Trade Representative Office to the WTO last week.

The United States may need to be careful on this issue, as it also has plans to support renewable energy.

Tense atmosphere is on the horizon

Analysts have warned that, given that the presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in 2012, the Republican Party and the Democratic Party will have different means for their own interests, but this arrogant political atmosphere may lead to misunderstanding in Beijing.

China will also face the transition of the leadership in 2012-2013, which will aggravate the risk of deterioration of tension between China and the United States.

"We have seen this for some time, and (the United States) is playing a role in arbitrarily provoking, and the protectionist momentum is growing," said DougPaal, vice president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a China expert.

Eswar Prasad, a senior analyst at Brooklyn Research, points out that revenge on the tip of the needle may have evolved into an extremely serious event.

"This danger is truly present in front of us, that is, some symbolic measures taken by the two sides that are supposed to be done are likely to escalate into more serious trade conflicts, because both countries are trying to show their tough side and thus please the domestic People," Prasad said. "There will be more intense confrontation in the future, but the real question is whether the confrontation between the two sides will expand and evolve into a mutually exclusive open trade war."

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