The central bank told the market: monetary policy is not loose in the second half of the year

Just as the market is expected to loosen monetary policy in the second half of the year, the symposium of the branch of the People's Bank of China held recently may be able to convey the attitude of the central bank to the market. The meeting pointed out that domestic inflation expectations are still strong, and the basis for stabilizing prices is still not strong. Once the policy is loose, there is a possibility of rebound. In the second half of the year, we will continue to implement a sound monetary policy and maintain the necessary policies. The central bank pointed out that in the second half of the year, in accordance with the central government's decision-making arrangements, we should continue to effectively handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure, and managing inflation expectations, and persist in stabilizing the overall price level as the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control. A sound monetary policy and maintaining the necessary policies. At the same time, grasp the direction, intensity and rhythm of regulation and control, and further improve the pertinence, flexibility and forward-looking of regulation. In the adoption of monetary policy tools, the meeting expressed the need to comprehensively use a combination of interest rates, exchange rates, open market operations, deposit reserve ratios and macro-prudential management to maintain a reasonable scale and pace of social financing. In this regard, Everbright Bank macro strategy analyst Sheng Hongqing said that the inflation rate in the third quarter may be higher than the second quarter, July CPI or as high as 6.2%. In the situation that anti-inflation is still the primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control, the probability of using interest rate instruments in the second half of the year is even greater. Because under the current financial system, interest rate and other price instruments are more equal to market financing entities, it is expected that August-September is still a sensitive window for regulating interest rate adjustment. From the launch of credit, the central bank meeting indicated that it should guide financial institutions to continue to increase support for qualified small and medium-sized enterprises, especially small and micro enterprises. It is necessary to further implement the differentiated housing credit policy, and urge financial institutions to timely issue loans to eligible housing construction projects to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market. It is worth noting that the meeting also stated that it is necessary to extend the cross-border trade renminbi settlement to the whole country, steadily promote the pilot project of RMB financing for overseas projects, and liberalize foreign direct investment in RMB settlement. Previously, the central bank issued the “Notice on Clearing Issues Related to Cross-Bound RMB Business”, stating that foreign direct investment in RMB (ie RMB FDI) settlement business is in the pilot phase of the case. To prevent hot money inflows, the RMB FDI pilot is for national restrictions and Key control projects are not accepted.  

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