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Since industrial electricity consumption exceeds 70% of total social electricity consumption, industrial coal consumption exceeds 95% of total coal consumption. Diesel consumption is mainly related to the flow of industrial products and raw materials. Therefore, industrial fluctuations Fluctuations in energy demand have a major impact. Since April, China's industrial production has shown signs of slowing down. In June, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size fell back to 13.7%. Comprehensive analysis of the main driving factors affecting industrial production, and considering the impact of the base, it is expected that the growth rate of industrial production will fall further in the second half of the year. The factors causing the further decline in industrial production growth are mainly from two aspects: First, the growth rate of fixed asset investment will fall further, which will increase the downward pressure on industrial production growth. As the growth rate of fiscal expenditures has declined this year, the growth rate of government investment projects has begun to fall, and this trend will continue in the second half of the year. Affected by real estate control policies, the growth rate of real estate sales has started to fall rapidly since May. From the perspective of the fluctuation of the real estate market, after the sales volume declines from March to June, the growth rate of real estate investment will begin to fall, and it is judged that the investment in real estate development in the fourth quarter will increase. The speed will begin to fall. As real estate investment accounts for more than 20% of urban fixed asset investment, the decline in real estate investment growth will further increase the downward pressure on investment growth, which in turn will lead to a growth in demand for some energy-intensive industries such as steel and building materials. Fall back. Second, the export growth rate will drop significantly. About 95% of China's exports are industrial manufactured goods, and fluctuations in exports can cause fluctuations in industrial production. Although the cumulative growth of China's exports in the first half of the year reached 35.2%, it must be noted that the high growth of exports in the first half of the year was mainly related to the low base in the same period last year and the demand for “replenishment stocks†in major economies such as the US, Europe and Japan. The substantial recovery of consumption and investment in the economy is still not obvious, and some countries such as Greece must objectively austerity in response to the sovereign debt crisis. Overall, there is no basis for sustained and rapid growth in exports in the second half of the year, and exports are expected to increase after August. The speed will drop significantly, and the growth rate of production in the export sector will also decline.
In the second half of the year, with the industrial growth rate further falling, the growth rate of energy demand will also fall off quarter by quarter. Considering that the base in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter, is relatively high, and the growth rate of real estate investment and export growth in the fourth quarter of this year may fall synchronously, affected by this, the main energy such as coal, electricity and refined oil in the fourth quarter. The growth rate of product demand will drop significantly from the first half of the year and the third quarter. Based on the judgment that the growth rate of energy demand in the second half of the year is falling quarter by quarter, it is expected that the energy supply and demand situation in the second half of the year will be relatively loose.
Energy production and demand growth will gradually decline
In the first half of the year, China Investment Consulting Network News, driven by rapid economic growth, the output of major energy products such as electricity, coal and refined oil products also increased rapidly. In the first half of the year, the power generation capacity was 1.9706 trillion kWh, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year, and the crude oil processing volume was 205.58 million tons. It increased by 17.9% year-on-year. Although the growth rate of energy production in the first half of the year was relatively fast, it should also be seen that in the second quarter, due to the decline in economic growth rate, the growth rate of production and demand for major energy products such as electricity and coal has dropped from the first quarter.