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1. The overall economic growth rate of the industry remained at a low level from January to June.
In the machine tool industry, the total industrial output value increased by 6.5% from January to February, and it was 5.1% in March. It was 4.4% in April, 5.5% in May, and 5.7% in June. The growth rate fluctuated slightly. From the second quarter data, the development situation has stabilized. In the first half of this year, the total industrial output value of each month was positively increasing year-on-year and month-on-month. The measures taken by the state to deal with the financial crisis have played a certain role in the machine tool industry, but the industry profits and imports and exports are still negative.
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to June, 5,813 machine tool industry enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 170.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, an increase of 29.1 percentage points over the same period of last year; the total industrial output value in June increased by 7.4% year-on-year. The chain increased by 14.7%. Among the five types of enterprises, privately-held enterprises achieved a relatively high growth rate of 16.3%; state-owned and collectively-controlled enterprises declined to varying degrees, -9.0% and -1.1% respectively; Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreign-controlled enterprises fell more severely. More than 20%.
Second, the overall decline of key contact enterprises is more serious than the whole industry
In order to grasp the development of the company, the Machine Tool Association has conducted a summary observation of the statistical data of key contact enterprises in nearly 200 industries for many years. From January to June, the sales revenue, total profit, total industrial output value and product sales value of Jinchee, forming, electrical appliances, accessories and cutting tools were negative growth. Enterprises with a year-on-year increase in total industrial output accounted for only 17.9% of key enterprises. In particular, the gross industrial output value of the gold-cut machine tool industry has been negatively negative for 8 consecutive months, and profits have been negative for 10 consecutive months, with nearly 40% of enterprises losing money. The key contact enterprises are more serious than the data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
113 key enterprises in the metal cutting machine industry (the total industrial output value accounts for 59.4% of the 743 statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, which is more representative). The total industrial output value decreased by 8.9% from January to June this year; the sales value of products decreased by 6.9%. .
Third, the overall market shrinks, and the market demand structure changes significantly.
1. Import and export showed double decline, and exports fell sharply
The impact of the international financial crisis is still spreading, leading to a general contraction of the domestic and international machine tool market, and difficulties in domestic sales and exports. In the first few months of this year, the consumer markets of the world's major machine tool producing countries and regions experienced a sharp decline. The decline in the export of machine tools in China has continued to deepen, and thanks to the policy of expanding domestic demand, the decline in imports has slowed down.
China's machine tool exports have fallen sharply after years of rapid growth. From January to June, the export of machine tool products was 2.13 billion US dollars, down 36.2% year-on-year; of which metal processing machine tools exported 680 million US dollars, down 31.3%. The decline in the growth rate of machine tools and metalworking machine tools has been increasing month by month. The domestic market was sluggish, and the reduction of foreign direct investment also affected the import of machine tools. From January to June, the total import of machine tools was US$4.83 billion, down 18.5% year-on-year, of which metal processing machine tools imported US$3.16 billion, down 11.4% year-on-year. Compared with January-May, the decline in machine tool and machine tool imports has been reduced by 3 to 5 percentage points.
The data shows that the decline of exports is larger than that of imports, and imports have stopped falling, and the further decline of exports indicates that the international competitiveness of China's machine tool products is still not strong; it also shows that the domestic market has begun to pick up, and the demand for medium and high-end machine tools begins. increase.
2. Market demand accelerates to high-end and large-scale changes
In the first half of the year, the market demand structure accelerated the pace of change. The demand for ordinary and low-grade CNC machine tools shrank drastically, and large-duty and high-end CNC machine tools still maintained stable demand. The demand for machine tools in various industries of the national economy has been uneven. Some industries, such as railway, aviation, and energy, still have large demand for machine tools. The demand for machine tools in automobile manufacturing has begun to rise. According to the statistics of 179 key enterprises in the Machine Tool Association: From January to June 2009, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tools was 53.7%, an increase of 7.7 percentage points year-on-year. The output of CNC cutting machine tools and the output of CNC machine tools decreased by 37.7% and 22.2% respectively compared with the same period, but the output ratio of CNC machine tools increased from 24.0% in 2008 to 30.0%, and the product structure changed significantly. The average unit price of gold cutting machine tools and CNC gold cutting machine tools were 217,000 yuan and 484,000 yuan respectively, which were 36.7% and 46.7% higher than the same period of last year. In the past year, the average unit price growth rate of machine tools has accelerated, an increase of more than 10 percentage points from a year ago.
The change in the average unit price increase of the gold cutting machine and the CNC gold cutting machine indicates that the demand for CNC machine tools is rising, especially the demand for large and high-end CNC machine tools is relatively strong. It includes factors that have contributed to the convergence of large and heavy-duty machine tools in the industry. Imported machine tools also showed the same trend. The average unit price of imported machine tools in the first half of this year was US$93,000, an increase of 24% over the same period last year. In order to adapt to the needs of the Chinese market, the structure of imported machine tools is continuously optimized.
Fourth, the main problems facing the industry
Although the current market demand has risen and fallen, the products have increased or decreased, and the enterprises have regressed, but the most important thing is that there is a big gap between the industry product structure and market requirements, and the impact resistance is weak, resulting in a sharp decline in exports and a decline in profits. The problems of the increasingly fragile corporate liquidity chain are very prominent, and the economic situation in the industry is still grim.
1. New product development speed lags behind rapid changes in market demand
In the sudden economic downturn, the market is more demanding, not only for product performance but also for service, price and so on. It can be seen from the rising trend of the price of domestic machine tools and imported machine tools that the level of demand products is increasing rapidly. As China's overall industrial level lags behind that of Western industrial countries and industry enterprises, its technical strength is not strong enough, and it is lagging behind the rapid pace of market upgrading in the development of high-end products.
2. Corporate liquidity is highly strained and it is difficult to maintain normal operations.
From January to May, the sales revenue of machine tool industry products was 125.78 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year; the profit was 5.94 billion yuan, down 21.1% over the same period; the profit margin of product sales revenue was 4.7%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. Although some industry enterprises have shifted from purely export products to exports of products and services, which have increased the added value of products, in terms of the whole industry, the unit price of machine tools in the first half of the year has fallen sharply, and the unit price of gold cutting machines has dropped by nearly 50%. The situation is very serious; the unit price of CNC gold cutting machine has dropped by 16.5%. This is a question worthy of attention. The price of gold-cutting machine tools fell sharply because the appreciation of the renminbi weakened the international competitiveness of China's products, which forced companies to adjust prices to stabilize some export markets. Or is the export market structure tending to be low-end? Still to be studied. But what is certain is that the drop in unit price will obviously have an adverse impact on the profits and capital of export enterprises.
Due to the user's breach of contract or the contract is not timely delivery, occupying the production site and funds of the enterprise; insufficient follow-up orders; serious shortage of liquidity; severe price competition and other factors cause business difficulties.
3. The product structure needs further adjustment, and the production capacity cannot be effectively utilized.
The changes in market demand highlight the contradiction of product structure in our industry. On the one hand, the production capacity of domestic high-end products is seriously insufficient; on the other hand, the production capacity of traditional products is too large, which is outstanding in ordinary machine tools and economical CNC machine tools. Price competition is more severe. Through technical transformation and training of employees, enterprises will resolve the contradiction between product structure, production structure and talent structure as soon as possible.
4. Beware of repeated construction of large and heavy machine tools
From January to June, the investment in fixed assets of the machine tool industry remained hot. The total investment of the newly started project was 55.52 billion yuan, up 66.5% year-on-year; the fixed asset investment was 50.46 billion yuan, up 55.8% year-on-year; the new fixed assets 194.0 100 million yuan, an increase of 140.2%.
Recently, the Machine Tool Association surveyed more than 130 companies, and more than 30% of the companies in the industry are currently working on or preparing for heavy-duty machine tools, which should be highly valued by the industry. Now many users report that my industry enterprises should pay attention to their special needs, rather than the generalization and homogenization of products.
V. Conclusion
In 2009, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was basically in a small fluctuation and steady. Although the domestic economy has shown signs of recovery, the impact of the financial crisis on the industry and uncertain factors still exist. Therefore, 2009 will be a difficult year for the development of China's machine tool industry. At present, the overall domestic demand has not yet fully recovered, but the demand for medium and high-end products and heavy products continues to be strong, so most professionals are cautiously optimistic about the economic operation this year. According to the survey of more than 130 key enterprises by the comprehensive association, its total output value and sales revenue decreased by about 10% in the first half of the year. According to the national economic operation and industry development trends, we expect that the whole industry will be basically flat or slightly increased year-on-year.
Analysis of economic operation of machine tool industry in the first half of 2009
In response to the financial crisis, China implemented a proactive fiscal policy and expanded domestic demand policies, accelerated infrastructure construction, and accelerated industrial upgrading. In the first half of 2009, China’s economy achieved a rapid growth of 7.1%, especially in June. Due to the investment lag factor, the growth rate of the machine tool industry in the first half of the year has always been a single digit. Some small industries have experienced negative growth for several consecutive months; the profits of the whole industry have fallen sharply; the import and export have doubled, and the decline in exports has deepened. Judging from the trend of major statistical data in each month of the first half of the year, the indicators stabilized after March, mainly due to the market demand structure to the high-end development trend. In the first half of the year, the sales rate of industrial products reached 96.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year.