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First-line survey
High-speed rail
    "A railway, starting from the northeast of China, heading north, passing through Siberia to the Bering Strait, tunneling through the Pacific Ocean, arriving in Alaska, and then from Alaska to Canada, and finally arrived in the United States in less than two days. This is a route that the Chinese railway department planned for the high-speed rail to go out a few years ago, but in fact, it is not easy to get through the overseas market.
    Zhao Xiaogang, the chairman of China South Locomotive, introduced the difficulty of Chinese companies entering the US market in his book “Walking with Speed†published in May this year. “If you only have 1% of the market, you may have to pay 100% of your efforts. For the untapped market, you should actively participate in cultivating new markets when the market is just beginning to develop, and use Chinese water to pour the flowers of the United States. Maybe It takes a long time, but when the mountain is blooming, you will surely get a good return as a breeder.†Zhao Xiaogang wrote in the book.
Difficult to develop
    On February 3, 2014, Lunar New Year's Day, the US New York Times Square Nasdaq [microblogging] on the big screen, a list of Chinese-made CRH380A high-speed trains made a wonderful appearance. In this place where there is a "world crossroads", it is important to invest heavily in advertising and to promote sales. It also demonstrates the determination and confidence of China's high-speed rail to enter the international market.
    China's high-speed rail going out almost started at the same time as the construction of domestic high-speed rail. 9 years ago, the first high-speed railway in Beijing and Tianjin was just started. The China Railway Construction Corporation (the predecessor of China Railway Construction Corporation), the China National Machinery Import and Export Corporation and the Turkish enterprises formed a consortium to successfully compete in Ankara, Turkey. The second phase of the Istanbul High Speed ​​Railway (hereinafter referred to as "An Yi High Speed ​​Rail Phase II").
    After experiencing the “7·23†motor train accident in 2011 and the personnel turmoil in the Ministry of Railways, in the past two years, the railway has gradually entered the sea. After the new leadership team took power, the high-speed rail was a cooperative project that the leaders pushed when they visited overseas. Some insiders said with a smile that President Xi Jinping is a "pave worker" for the railway to go out. Premier Li Keqiang is the "salesman" of China's high-speed rail. When Xi Jinping visited Africa, Latin America, Mongolia and other places, all domestic enterprises won the "big order" of the railway project. Li Keqiang has repeatedly played the role of "super salesman". When he visited Thailand, Central and Eastern Europe and other regions last year and visited Africa and Europe this year, Li Keqiang actively promoted China's high-speed rail technology to visiting countries.
    According to incomplete statistics, China currently has high-speed rail cooperation or negotiations with at least 20 countries, including Turkey, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Iran, Thailand, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Romania, and Brazil. , Mexico, Poland, the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia and India. But in fact, there are only three overseas high-speed rail projects that Chinese companies have actually won: the second phase of the An Yi high-speed rail that was opened to traffic in July this year; the section of the Saudi Maimai high-speed railway that is under construction; and the other is the construction of China Railway, which was originally scheduled for The Dinaco-Anaco quasi-high-speed rail in Venezuela, completed in 2012, has been slow due to the arrears of the project by the Venezuelan government. These three projects are limited to the civil engineering sector. China's high-speed rail has not made a breakthrough overseas in vehicle equipment (EMUs) and control systems with greater added value.
    It is worth mentioning that China's high-speed rail often encounters "outrage". The most typical one is the recent loss of the Mexican high-speed rail project. On November 3, the Mexican government announced that China Railway Construction Association won the bid for the high-speed railway project from Mexico City, Mexico City, to Querétaro, Mexico's third largest city. This is also regarded as China's overseas construction and full adoption of Chinese standards. The first high-speed rail, but only four days later, the Mexican president personally announced the withdrawal of the winning bid, and decided to restart the bidding process. Coincidentally, in October 2013, Li Keqiang’s visit to Thailand during the “high-speed rail for rice†project was also aborted due to domestic political struggles and unconstitutional issues in Thailand.
    "The railway project is greatly affected by the political and natural environment. Compared with other projects, the success rate is not very high. It is normal to have some conditions." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Department of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Institute of the Ministry of Commerce It is said that road and water conservancy projects can usually be completed in one or two years, and high-speed rail projects usually span several sessions. The number of variables will increase, but as long as the country has the idea of ​​building a high-speed rail, we should continue Keep track of these projects, and once the opportunity comes, you can prepare for it.
    Dong Yan, a researcher at the Institute of Integrated Transportation Economics of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the railway involves the lifeblood of the country. It is not as simple as buying ordinary things. The foreign construction team can deeply understand the country's national conditions, which makes everyone have to think carefully.
    The Chinese high-speed rail team that is “ready to go†is not without opportunities. On November 25, a spokesman for the Ministry of Railways of India revealed that India will sign an agreement with China this week. According to the agreement, China will provide a feasibility report on the construction of a 1,754-kilometer high-speed rail between Delhi and Chennai. It is understood that the planned "Delhi-Chennai High-speed Rail Corridor" is 1,754 kilometers long and connects the Indian cities of Delhi and Chennai. The estimated construction cost will be as high as 2 trillion rupees (about 1979.88 billion yuan).
From BOT to BT mode
    The BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer) model was the most common form of cooperation in the process of China's railway going out. For example, in 2011, China Railway Engineering Corporation and Myanmar Railway Transport Department signed a memorandum of understanding on the Myanmar-Kunming-Kunming Railway. The project adopts the BOT method. The Chinese and Myanmar sides work together to plan to invest 20 billion US dollars. The Chinese side is responsible for raising most of the construction funds. With 50 years of operation rights.
    However, Wang Mengshu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and deputy chief engineer of China Railway Tunnel Group, said: "We don't want to engage in BOT now. According to past experience, we can't get money after BOT is built. Although we have been operating for decades, the risk of foreign project operation is not controlled by ourselves. In the end, it may be white, and it is better to turn it over directly. Now China is more inclined to engage in BT. Regardless of the operation, if you pay for the project, you have to pay. If there is no money, discuss the exchange of resources and energy, thus establishing a long-term effect. Cooperation mechanism to guarantee the use of our resources."
    Wang Mengshu revealed that in the Mexico City to Queretaro high-speed rail project that the Chinese company had won before, Mexico intended to use the mine to exchange high-speed rail. Part of the construction cost was cash, and some energy was exchanged. “Although the price negotiated at the time was not high, it was more beneficial for us to give us energy.â€
    It is worth mentioning that the railway going out is inseparable from the bank financing guarantee. In the Mexican high-speed rail project contract, 85% of the project's long-term financing comes from the Export-Import Bank of China. In April this year, during the Lao Prime Minister's visit to China, the two countries announced the launch of an inter-governmental railway cooperation agreement between the two countries. The project is expected to cost US$7 billion, and the Export-Import Bank of China also provided financing support for this project.
    “In the process of domestic enterprises expanding into the international market, there must be financial follow-up. In addition to financing, there are settlement facilities, consumer loans, etc. Banks are a guide and baton, and countries support the export of certain industries in the country. Bai Ming said that in the 1950s and 1960s, in order to help Toyota to get rid of the economic difficulties and go out, the president of the Bank of Japan’s Nagoya branch organized a banking group to provide loans for Toyota. The Japanese long-term credit bank was Toyota's overseas business provides credit guarantees.
    At present, the high-speed rail going out mainly involves high-speed railway infrastructure construction companies China Railway and China Railway Construction, equipment manufacturing leaders China South Locomotive and China North Locomotive, these enterprises are old-fashioned central enterprises, in addition to the production of train axles, plate lines and other components upstream Enterprises, including Taiyuan Heavy Industry, Maanshan Iron and Steel Group. With the reform of the railway system, private enterprises such as Jinan Dongfang Xinxing Vehicle Co., Ltd. and Zongshen Industry Group have also begun to participate in the field of railway transportation equipment manufacturing.
How big is the overseas market?
    There is still some debate in the industry about how much the overseas high-speed rail market that Chinese companies are actively going out.
    Wang Mengshu said that as early as the former Ministry of Railways, China has planned four “going out†railway lines: First, the Eurasian Railway, starting from London, passing through Europe, after Moscow, divided into two, one into Kazakhstan, another Zhiyao refers to Khabarovsk in the Far East, then to Manzhouli in China; second, the Central Asian Railway, starting from Urumqi, through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Turkey and other countries, eventually reaching Germany; The Asian Railways, starting from Kunming, arrived in Singapore via Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia. The fourth is the Sino-Russian Canadian-American Railway. It runs northeast from the northeast, reaches the Bering Strait via Siberia, crosses the Pacific Ocean, arrives in Alaska, and then Alaska went to Canada and eventually arrived in the United States.
    Wang Mengshu said that after the development of China's high-speed railway, I hope that these railway lines can build more high-speed rail. Now these lines are mainly promoted by Chinese railway construction units abroad, and negotiations with other countries are still in progress.
    However, in Dong Yan’s view, these projects are very grand, but they are difficult to land. The countries along the Central Asian Railway and the Trans-Asian Railway are not very motivated, and most of them are poor countries. Even if China is responsible for construction and operation, Chinese enterprises It is also difficult to make money. Among the planned multinational railway lines, the Eurasian route from Russia to Europe is the most likely and most promising, because the economy along the line is developed and the construction funds and benefits can be guaranteed. "Now Russia has no money, but it is very active. It also has an abacus. After the completion of the Eurasian route, the history of Russia is the longest. Finally, China may have planned, promoted and built it for half a day. After the completion of the project, most of the benefits were Russia. Take it away, so national decisions must be cautious."
    "No country in the world, like China, has such high enthusiasm for building high-speed rail. In fact, none of the high-speed rails operated by countries in the world can rely on transportation revenue to pay for all construction and operation costs. Some high-speed rail in Europe can pay Operating costs have achieved profitability.†Zhao Jian, a professor at the School of Economics and Management at Beijing Jiaotong University, said that high-speed rail construction has high requirements for capital and population density. Whether it is possible to achieve breakeven or even profit is the biggest challenge. This is also the construction of high-speed rail in Thailand, Singapore and other countries. The reason for hesitating again and again. The biggest obstacle to China's high-speed rail going out is that there is no market abroad.
    Gerald Ollivier, a senior transportation expert at the World Bank's representative office in China, analyzes the global high-speed rail market. Most of the countries that intend to build are still conducting domestic discussions. Even if they build most of them, they only build one or two lines to connect two large Cities, it is difficult to build a large-scale high-speed rail network like China. "The world's largest high-speed rail market is still in China."
    Wang Mengshu believes that many national leaders are very envious after seeing China's high-speed rail miracle. It is inevitable that other countries will develop high-speed rail in the future.
Carrying heavy responsibility
    On November 8, Xi Jinping announced at the APEC meeting that China will invest 40 billion US dollars to establish the Silk Road Fund, and put forward a series of proposals to strengthen Asia's interconnection and deepen the "Belt and Road" cooperation.
    "China has the world's largest foreign exchange reserves and a huge amount of excess capacity, with infrastructure and some industrial advantages, while infrastructure construction in emerging market countries is still lacking. China hopes that neighboring countries can enjoy the welfare of China's economic development, and at the same time, By promoting the infrastructure construction of neighboring countries to strengthen economic and trade exchanges, and thus safeguarding the future development of China's foreign trade and economy. Chen said that to achieve interconnection, road connectivity is the foundation, and railway will be the top priority. The export of high-speed rail can not only help China to absorb the excess capacity of industries such as steel and cement, but also accelerate the internationalization of the RMB.
    Liu Xinwei, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information Steel, said that after years of blind expansion, the current steel industry in China has a serious overcapacity. This year's domestic steel production is expected to be around 1.1 billion tons, while actual demand may be only 840 million tons. The continuous accumulation of excess capacity has become a major dilemma affecting industrial development.
    “The demand for steel in the railway industry accounts for about 3% of total steel demand. The construction of one-kilometer high-speed railway requires 3,000 tons of steel, ten times that of ordinary railways. The export of high-speed rail can help the domestic steel industry to consume some excess capacity. For Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. Baosteel, Baotou Steel and other companies producing high-end railway steel have the most profit." Liu Xinwei said.
    At this year's APEC meeting, Xi Jinping also put forward several figures: "In the first three quarters of this year, China's high-tech industry and equipment manufacturing industry growth rate was 12.3% and 11.1%, respectively, significantly higher than the average industrial growth rate; In the third quarter, the energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 4.6%."
    The 12th Five-Year Development Plan of the High-end Equipment Manufacturing Industry released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2012 proposes that by 2020, high-end manufacturing will become a pillar industry of the national economy, accounting for 25% of the total manufacturing industry, and the compound annual growth rate of the high-end manufacturing industry. Will reach 20%.
    "High-end manufacturing has always been a pioneer in industrial transformation, and high-speed rail can be used as a representative of China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry. China's current high-speed rail operating mileage has reached the top in the world. We must give full play to our advantages and use high-speed rail exports to drive domestic industrial transformation. "The railway expert and professor of Tongji University, Sun Zhang said.
    "China's high-speed rail going out can not only expand our international exchanges, but also enhance our position on the world stage, and strengthen our position in the international division of labor," Bai Ming said.
China's Marshall plan reveals: At least high-speed rail cooperation with 20 countries
Abstract Editor's Note / In the China home diplomacy of APEC, the "Belt and Road" strategy was once again heated, and the "Chinese version of the Marshall Plan" was also beginning to emerge. Under the background of domestic overcapacity and industrial upgrading, enterprises and industries “going out†are inevitable choices. High-speed rail as a...
Editor's note / In the APEC China home diplomacy, the "Belt and Road" strategy was once again heated, and the "Chinese version of the Marshall Plan" was also beginning to emerge. Under the background of domestic overcapacity and industrial upgrading, enterprises and industries “going out†are inevitable choices. As a kind of industrial product with industrial and commodity carrying functions, high-speed rail has exceeded the scope of traffic itself. Perhaps in the near future, where the high-speed rail will go, where China's manufacturing and China's creation will go, the business model of high-speed rail development in the future will become " An important manifestation of the China Marshall Plan. The operating mileage of 11,000 kilometers and the high-profile marketing of the national high-level have given the high-speed rail "going out" more confidence. In the past two years, the pace of high-speed rail expansion in overseas markets has continued to accelerate. Despite the thorns, China's high-speed rail will surely gain new experience in the overseas market of the big waves, and this high-speed rail road will further drive domestic economic transformation and industrial upgrading.