Analysis of Domestic Synthetic Ammonia Market Trends in 2012

With the recent years, the issue of overcapacity in coal chemical industry has become more prominent. From 2011 to 2012, China's combined ammonia production capacity reached 6.26 million tons, and the urea production capacity reached 12.78 million tons. In June 2012, domestic domestic ammonia production was approximately 4.578 million tons. In June 2011, domestic domestic ammonia production was about 4.395 million tons. The year-on-year increase was 4%. In the first six months of 2012, the total domestic output of synthetic ammonia was approximately 27.114 million tons. From January to June 2011, the total domestic output of synthetic ammonia was about 25.32 million tons, which was a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. China's excess output of synthetic ammonia has caused manufacturers to cut prices for sale, and transactions in various regions have been basically smooth.

In the first half of 2012, the domestic market was in an ups and downs, and the wave of market sentiment was over. The highest price in the first half of this year was that the mainstream price of Jiangsu's northern region was 3,250 yuan/ton, and that of Jiangsu's southern region was 3,500 yuan/ton. Anhui south of the Yangtze River ** factory mainstream 3350 yuan / ton acceptance, Anhui north of the Yangtze River region ** factory 3250 yuan / ton. Hebei ** ex-factory price of 2950-3000 yuan / ton. Shandong area ** factory mainstream 3100-3150 yuan / ton of cash. Supported by the better demand of urea and compound fertilizer, ** factory prices continued to be high. The lowest price of synthetic ammonia in the first half of the year is that the mainstream quotation for the Hebei market is 2650-2700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price in Shandong is 2700-2800 yuan/ton, and in northern Jiangsu is 2900 yuan/ton.

Judging from the current market conditions, domestic prices will not rise or fall much, that is, China will put into production in 2012, and there are more devices for expansion, but the basic supply and demand balance can be maintained. New devices have been added, as well as urea and Other downstream products. In August-September, China's agriculture was in the period of harvesting and sowing. The demand for agriculture was weakened and the market conditions were mainly weak. It is expected that the market price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the second half of the year, and the price of the northern region will remain at 2900-3000 yuan/ton.