The economic growth rate in the second quarter is expected to fall back

The June manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Analysts said that while total demand is still weak and corporate destocking continues, the economic growth rate may continue to fall in the second quarter and in the future. Considering the government...
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June was 50.1%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. Analysts said that while total demand is still weak and corporate destocking continues, the economic growth rate may continue to fall in the second quarter and in the future. In view of the government's determination to increase the current economic growth rate tolerance and promote economic transformation, short-term stimulus policies are unlikely to be introduced. De-capacity and de-leverage are the main lines of economic development in the second half of the year. Future economic growth needs to promote structural reforms in the process of de-capacity, relying on reforms to release dividends to provide new impetus for economic development.

Economic growth in the second quarter may continue to fall

Analysts said that weak aggregate demand and continued destocking of enterprises will lead to continued economic growth in the second quarter. It is expected that the economic growth rate will fall to around 7.5% in the second quarter.

Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications (601328, shares), believes that the economy is still in a weaker stage in the second quarter than in the first quarter. Judging from the "troika", the export squeezed out water in the absence of a big impact on the external environment, and returned to the real situation. The investment was slightly affected by the downturn in the manufacturing industry. The growth rate of consumption increased steadily and the economy did not appear to stabilize and rebound. situation.

“Affected by the decline in the industrial and foreign trade sectors, the growth rate in the second quarter will be reduced.” Li Huiyong, chief macro economist of Shenyin Wanguo, said that the economic growth rate in the second quarter is expected to fall to 7.6%. "Now the economy is not getting warmer, the economic trend is still L-shaped bottom wave dynamics, and the new rising cycle may take up to three years."

For the economic trend in the second half of the year, the Bank of China (601988, stocks) report that the economy may slightly rebound to around 7.8% in the third quarter, and the annual target of 7.5% can be achieved, and the possibility of reaching 8% is not ruled out.

Wen Bin, head of macroeconomic research at the Bank of China International Finance Research Institute, said that the decline in energy and raw material prices, business difficulties, lower PMI index, and increased financial market volatility have brought uncertainty to the economic recovery, but urbanization has accelerated, consumption and Factors such as the recovery of export growth and the base have laid the foundation for a stable or even small recovery in the economy.

Despite the overall slowdown in the economy, there is still potential for continued growth in the long run. Li Daokui, director of the Department of Finance at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University, believes that China's current economic growth point is very clear, that is, the potential in the field of quasi-public goods, including water conservancy construction, air management, etc., and these areas can guide the entry of private capital. In the second half of the year, senior officials will hold a series of meetings to discuss economic policies and reform measures. A series of signals are expected from July to October, and the Chinese economy will have new changes.

De-capacity to become the main line of economic development

Analysts said that the government's tolerance for the current decline in economic growth has increased significantly. Under the general trend of accelerating the elimination of excess capacity and promoting economic transformation, short-term stimulus policies are difficult to introduce, and measures to stimulate the economy relying on credit expansion will also be abandoned. De-capacity and de-leveraging have become the main lines of economic transformation in the second half of the year.

Zhu Jianfang, chief economist at CITIC Securities (600030, shares), believes that short-term policies to stimulate the economy are difficult to introduce. "First, the government basically accepts the current rate of economic growth, and does not believe that the current growth is obviously low. Second, there is no obvious opportunity for the government to make stimulus policies in the short term, such as a sharp decline in growth rate and employment deterioration; Financially sound demands and concerns about systemic risks will constrain short-term fiscal and monetary expansion policies."

For the issue of de-capacity, any Vida of the Department of Economics and Trade of the School of Economics and Management of Beijing University of Science and Technology pointed out that the industries that are most urgently needed to produce capacity in the second half of the year are steel, cement and electrolytic aluminum. Other industries include glass and rare earth, mainly concentrated in machinery and chemicals. department. "Now the world economic recovery is weak, external demand is sluggish, and exports of steel and other commodities have been greatly reduced. Under the domestic real estate control policy, demand for steel and building materials has decreased. At the same time, China's crude steel output ranked first in the world last year, ranking second. The total output of the tenth country is still more."

He Weida believes that structural adjustment should be accelerated, backward production capacity should be eliminated, industrial concentration should be improved, and technological product structure transformation and upgrading should be accelerated. The government should introduce uniform environmental standards as soon as possible, but also strict enforcement, less intervention, and more supervision.

“The process of de-capacity also contains opportunities.” He Weida said that high-tech enterprises that develop circular economy, actively upgrade technology and have high added value will have a chance. In addition, most of the overcapacity sectors are also associated with serious environmental pollution, and the environmental protection industry will have much to offer.

For the problem of deleveraging, Zhang Monan, deputy director of the World Economic Research Office of the National Information Center's forecasting department, said that the leverage ratio of the Chinese society has increased by 40 percentage points in the past decade. Local government debt has kidnapped the Chinese economy. The ever-increasing total amount of social financing and the sharp increase in off-balance sheet financing and bond financing have formed a great contrast and deviation from the downward economic growth. Subsequent regulation and control policies will continue to be introduced, and the aftershocks in the financial market may continue. Monetary policy needs to find a balance between short-term and long-term, avoiding “de-leveraging” and causing damage to the real economy.

Li Huiyong said that deleveraging needs to vigorously promote the marketization of interest rates and exchange rates, improve the efficiency of resource allocation, and at the same time revitalize existing assets through asset securitization.

Wang Zhihao, head of research at Standard Chartered Bank Greater China, said at the Lujiazui Forum (official station) that Chinese corporate debt problems are serious, but the problem is not the size of the debt, but the ability of these companies to pay debts. China will arrange a beautiful deleveraging process in the next five years.

Promote structural reforms to unlock economic potential

Analysts say that current and future economic growth needs to rely on reforms. On the one hand, we must optimize the investment structure to avoid the deterioration of excess problems; on the other hand, we must liberalize industry regulation, break monopolies, and actively guide private funds to invest in high-end manufacturing and service industries.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of Galaxy Securities, believes that to resolve the current difficulties of the economy, it is necessary to strictly enforce the balance sheets of local governments and financing platforms, and curb speculative purchases through taxation to achieve market clearing. At the same time, the market interest rate is quickly launched and the benchmark interest rate is drastically lowered to improve the financial environment of the industry.

Li Huiyong said that the most important reform area in the second half of the year is to break the monopoly of commodities, channels and prices, achieve financial liberalization, and solve the problem of asymmetry in supply and demand of funds. Implement a generalized distribution system reform, such as reforming the fiscal and taxation system, to provide a safety valve for the society, to solve the problem of insufficient consumer spending capacity and excessive corporate burden, and to rebuild a new business order.

Jia Kang, director of the Finance Department of the Ministry of Finance, said that a major bottleneck in China's market economy is a serious distortion of the relationship between price-based prices and price formation. The most important reform issue of the year, "the reform of the camp, has already formed a mechanism of reversal, and the next step must be to promote the reform of the new round of taxation." "The top-level plan formed by the Third Plenary Session must address the overall design, roadmap and timetable of this reform."

Regarding how to activate the stock currency and serve the real economy, Li Huiyong said that asset securitization is one of the sources of living water. “Now the loans are dead assets. If the assets are securitized, they can provide new sources of incremental funds.” In addition, encourage enterprises to go public, and vigorously develop over-the-counter transactions such as the expansion of the New Third Board and support non-listed equity transactions. Turn non-commercial, non-monetary assets into tradable, transferable assets.

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