The report said that the local version of 4 trillion quietly launched major projects have been launched

Against the background of the current domestic economic downturn, the central government once again emphasized the importance of investment for economic growth in the current round of steady economic growth.

Recently, the Ministry of Railways raised the railway infrastructure investment amount twice in the “2012 Third Railway Construction Bond Prospectus” issued in June and July 30, totaling 64 billion yuan. In addition to traditional infrastructure projects such as railways and highways led by the central government, from Guizhou to Changsha to Shanghai, local governments have a series of policies to expand domestic demand and stabilize growth.

Under the circumstances that the economy is rapidly declining and the local insurance growth situation is more severe, has a local version of “4 trillion” been quietly launched?

Major projects have been launched in various places

The “Guizhou Eco-Cultural Tourism Development Plan” will be announced in August, and 2,382 projects will be reported from various regions to select key investment projects with a total amount of 3 trillion yuan. It is proposed to plan 10 national-level major projects and 50 provincial-level major projects. And 200 provincial key projects.

"Under the current situation, the central government has repeatedly emphasized the pre-adjustment and fine-tuning. The period of various policy adjustments and introductions will be greatly shortened, and the timeliness will be significantly enhanced. The Provincial Development and Reform Commission will now also change the situation analysis from monthly scheduling to weekly scheduling." Hunan Development and Reform Commission Director Hu Henghua said at the symposium on investment work in the province.

Next, we will speed up the construction of major projects and strive for no stoppages, lost work, and delays. As soon as possible, a number of major projects will be launched. The NDRC has initially produced a list of 50 major projects to be launched in advance, and will work with relevant departments to establish a mechanism for sub-sectors and sub-projects.

In addition, a number of major projects will be launched in the areas of municipal infrastructure, energy conservation and environmental protection in the near future to attract private capital.

In the face of the economic downturn, one of the important measures for Shanghai's “steady growth” is to increase the focus of fiscal funds and optimize the financing environment for small and micro enterprises.

Jiang Zhuoqing, deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Municipal Government and director of the Municipal Finance Bureau, told the media that this year Shanghai will increase the special funds of 2 billion yuan to continuously optimize the financing and development environment of small and micro enterprises.

At this point, the total amount of financial special funds focused on serving the financing environment of small and micro enterprises in Shanghai has reached 5 billion yuan.

Previously, the groundbreaking of key provincial projects in 2012 and the groundbreaking ceremony for the high-power semiconductor laser industrial park project in Shaanxi Province were held in Xi'an. According to reports, the province has a total of 48 key projects with a total investment of 53.3 billion yuan, involving seven major areas, including 17 strategic emerging industry projects, 13 advanced manufacturing projects, 4 modern logistics projects, and environmental protection and energy conservation. There are 3 projects, 4 urban infrastructure projects, 4 water conservancy projects, and 3 social development projects.

It is understood that in order to promote the construction of major projects and give full play to the key role of investment in stabilizing economic growth, the Shaanxi Provincial Government has issued ten opinions on stable growth.

These ten opinions clearly point out that the growth of insurance industry has been placed in a prominent position and has become the key to ensuring the completion of the annual target. In particular, it is proposed to start a number of major projects as soon as possible to ensure that all new projects started in the provincial key projects are started before the end of September.

In the statistics of the first quarter, the total number of construction projects in Shaanxi is currently 4,510, an increase of 12.3% over the same period of last year, of which 864 are newly started, an increase of 79.6% over the same period of last year. Focus on supporting infrastructure construction in infrastructure, agriculture, people's livelihood, advantageous industries and ecological protection.

In Hebei, the construction of Caofeidian New District, the key project of Hebei Province, is in full swing. 151 large-scale projects such as the 10 million-ton refinery project, Shougang Phase II project, China Resources 1 million kW unit, and large-scale desalination have been comprehensively promoted.

Chen Xuejun, secretary of the Party Working Committee and director of the Administrative Committee of Caofeidian New District, said: "To maintain steady and rapid economic development in the province, Caofeidian New District is the leader. We will do our best to build a tough battle in project construction and accelerate industrial gathering.

At present, the planned investment scale of Caofeidian New District has reached 246.71 billion yuan. After only one 10 million-ton refinery project is put into production, it can provide more than 10 billion yuan in tax revenue to the new district.

Steady growth must be stable investment

There are indications that before and after the "stable growth" central slogan was put forward, the local economy faced the economic downturn. The first time was the old magic weapon - investment.

“Steady growth must be stable and investment must continue to play a key role in the key period. For the provinces like Shaanxi, the root of all problems is insufficient development. The fundamental reason for insufficient development is not enough investment and insufficient projects. The project is investment, that is Change is the basis for future development," said Zhang Baotong, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Shaanxi Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

"But it should be noted that this time, unlike the '4 trillion' investment in 2008, the '4 trillion' is approved by the central government, the plan is formulated, and the local government implements it. This time it is mainly to exert the initiative of the local government. The central government is fine-tuning and pre-adjusting the formulation and implementation of specific plans,” said Unit Zhuang, dean of Xi'an Chaohua School of Management.

However, Sun Lijian, a professor at Fudan University's School of Economics, stressed that from the perspective of efficiency, this round of stimulus has improved compared with the original 4 trillion policy, but given the problems in China's fiscal decentralization system, such a stimulus will be very Big aftereffects. "Best, the government should reduce interventions, guide the situation, reduce taxes for enterprises, and support a level playing field, so that there will be market vitality for sustainable economic development."

In this regard, Qi Xianming, director of the Economic Research Institute of the China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, said in an interview with the media that these local governments may have two channels of funds, on the one hand, borrowing from banks through local financing platforms, on the other hand It is through the form of local debt.

However, Sun Lijian believes that if it is financed by local debt and borrowing from banks, the aftereffects will still be great. “The government uses investment promotion methods to attract enterprises to become investment entities to drive economic development. This will be a way to solve the funding sources and promote the sound development of the economy.”

Song Yuxing said that there is no shortage of capital in China. The key is that there is a problem with the allocation of money. How to guide capital to invest in places that should be invested.

Does not affect long-term adjustment structure

From the perspective of central policies, investment once again provoked a steady growth beam.

"Expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth will depend on consumption in the long run. It is inseparable from stable investment, and short-term investment promotion will not affect long-term adjustment of the structure, which will help improve the future consumption environment." Authoritative experts pointed out.

The World Bank believes that the biggest policy challenge facing the Chinese economy in the short term is how to maintain a stable economic growth through a soft landing. Therefore, it is recommended to adopt a fiscal stimulus plan to revitalize the economy and increase support for consumption, rather than just increase Investment in infrastructure construction.

Liu Fuzhen, former vice president of the Macro Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, also pointed out in an interview with the media that the most stable growth in China is consumption. He said that China cannot continue to rely on investment to drive the economy. This path is unstable and does not conform to the laws of the market. Consumption is the most important part of stimulating the economy. "The first thing to solve the problem of solving consumption is to solve it. In the income distribution system, only when income increases, the final consumption can be raised."

Liu Fuzhen said that there is no problem in China's economic "guarantee eight" this year. Therefore, no reforms should be used instead of reforms, and reforms should be used instead of regulation. At the same time, on the road of reform, the elimination of some small and medium-sized enterprises is also a pain that must be experienced in economic transformation.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomics Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out that "expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth will depend on consumption in the long run, and it is inseparable from stable investment."

"This is actually how to deal with the relationship between the long-term development of structural adjustment and the steady growth in the short term." Wang Jun and Zhang Liqun share the same view.

Zhang Liqun said that expanding consumption is a long-term move for China's economic restructuring and transfer. It must rely on policy stimulus and deeper reform. In the current situation of continued decline in real estate investment, it should be included in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The key projects, especially the major investment projects to improve people's livelihood and support the development of the western region and the countryside, should be strengthened to reduce the government investment that was once too fast to return to normal.

Wang Jun also said that under the circumstance of the weakening of the European and American economies, China will not be able to rely on exports to drive the economy for a long time in the future. Therefore, between investment and consumption, it is still not mature to use consumption to stimulate the economy. Investment drives the economy. “The current investment is also for long-term consumption, which fundamentally contributes to the improvement of the consumer environment.”   

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