Analysis of the timber index trend in the first half of 2012

In the first half of this year, a series of negative factors such as increased external market volatility, slowdown in the domestic economy, spread of market pessimism, long-term downturn in the A-share market, etc., filled people's hopes for improvement and undermined market confidence. The timber market is also filled with pessimistic atmosphere. The trading is unusually deserted, especially after entering the off-season timber sales period in June. This phenomenon is even more prominent. There are a lot of people whose timber turnover is less than 300,000 in one month, and some businesses even appear. "zero deal". Businessmen said that in the past decade, there has never been such a scene. It is not an exaggeration to describe the current market with “bad market”. Customs statistics show that from January to May, the country saw a significant increase in sawmilling imports, but the sharp decline in furniture exports, coupled with the shrinking domestic timber demand, led to serious inventories in the wood market, prices fell, leading to a substantial decline in the first half of the comprehensive index of wood.

(a) The property market has continued to regulate and control policies, and home decoration demand has shrunk. In the first half of the year, the central government will continue to make clear that regulation and control will not relax, and stabilization policy expectations will be set as the main guidelines for real estate policies. The domestic property market control policies will continue, and the real estate market will suffer disastrous sales. This will directly affect downstream furniture and decoration industries. Affected by the shrinking market demand, the adjustment of the domestic timber market continued to increase in the first half of the year, and the timber price index continued to fall. The mahogany index closed at 155.6 points, down 2.33% month-on-month, and down 14.95% year-on-year; the log classification index closed at 151.85. At the same time, it fell by 5.7% from January, a decrease of 3%. Although the Sawn Timber Classification Index showed a slight upward trend, the overall transaction volume declined significantly. As of March 2012, the overall volume of sawn timber fell 27.72 points from last year. %, the most significant decline.

(b) High inventory levels Wood prices have been significantly adjusted. In the case of a weak overall market, the mahogany materials that mainly attack the mid-to-high end market take the goods very slowly. Even the most popular species such as Dalbergia japonica (commonly known as Dahong rosewood) and Diwo Dalbergia (commonly known as South American red rosewood) are not With exception, in June, the transaction price of Dalbergia japonica (commonly known as South American red rosewood) fell to 21,000-22,000 yuan / ton, which was a drop of 2000-3,000 yuan / ton compared with January. The price of Dalbergia japonicus (commonly known as Laos red rosewood) (Laos Red Sourdaw Price Quotes, list of Laos Suanzhi Rosewood Manufacturers) also fell below the “8” prefix in May and reported to 78,000-79,000 Yuan/ton. The price of hardwood Dalbergia (commonly known as Indonesian black rosewood) was reported at 16,750 yuan, a ton, which was a drop of 670 yuan/ton from January. Analysts believe that this is not unrelated to the negative attitude of the downstream buyers to wait and see. In the past, when downstream furniture merchants purchased wood raw materials, they would appropriately hoard material to prepare for unexpected needs. However, due to the sluggish demand for wooden furniture in the market this year, merchants’ desire for bulk purchases is weak, mainly based on use and purchase. In addition, there is also a situation that, although some furniture companies have the intention to sell goods, but because a large number of finished furniture is unmarketable, the capital turnover does not come, and businesses naturally will not be able to purchase raw materials.