Domestic timber transaction in the second half is not optimistic

Half of 2012 has already passed halfway. Looking at the Chinese timber market in the first half of the year, under the influence of factors such as the domestic economic downturn and the real estate downturn, inventory has become the main theme of the market. Although the lumber merchants' unique hopes could ease the pressure on the stock, the severe shrinkage in demand has caused the market to die and the trading environment has been extremely deserted. The prices of Microcave Dalbergia and African Safflower have fallen sharply but they have not yet changed the depressed market conditions. Experts predict that in the second half of the year, the domestic timber transaction will continue to fall. The market outlook is not optimistic.

The demand for Dalbergia rose slightly and the price dropped by more than 5,000 yuan/ton.

When the lumber merchants were complacent about the hot market in the first half of last year, after the opening of 2012, Ditan Dawn had encountered “Waterloo”. In addition to the smooth sales in February and May, the transactions were unusually sluggish in other periods. On the one hand, it is a low turnover, and on the other side, it is the continuous replenishment of new goods. Under the pressure of inventory and funds, timber merchants have to make price adjustments. At the end of March, the dimple Dalbergia was 2-3m long, and the thickness was more than 25cm. The general price was reported at 2.0-2.2 yuan per ton, which was a drop of 2000-3000 yuan per ton compared with February, and the drop of differentials was even more, such as the origin of Panama. Dalbergia rose from 1.8-1.9 yuan / ton, to 1.4-1.5 yuan / ton. However, the downtrend did not seem to stop. With the continuous shrinking of market demand, in June, the micro-concave rosewood made price concessions again for some of the specifications of the material, among which the price of the Mexican dimple Dalbergia fell. RMB 35,000/ton, which was RMB 3,000/ton lower than that in March, and RMB 10,000/ton lower than the same period of last year. Nicaragua's price of Dalbergia rose to RMB 1.7-1.8 million per ton, down from RMB 2000-3,000 per ton in March. Such a significant price adjustment is unprecedented, but it is very helpless to the timber dealers. Even if such a large-scale price adjustment is not allowed to pay buyers, Dawn Huang Dang is still faced with the difficult situation of low cargo.

According to industry analysts, judging from the current market situation, it is "myth" to pick up Dwarf rosewood in the short term. Now it is the time to test the strength of the timber merchants. Whoever can reach the bottom is the biggest winner.

The Dalbergia japonica continued its decline and the price fell below the “8” prefix for the first time.

In the case of a weak overall market, the mahogany materials that mainly attack the mid-to-high end market take the goods very slowly. Even the Dendrobium sinensis (commonly known as Dahong rosewood) is a popular wood species. In May, the Dalbergia japonica (commonly known as Laos The red rosewood) broke its "8" prefix for 1.8-2.2m in thickness for about 15-20cm for the first time and reported it to 78,000-79,000 yuan per ton. At the same time, the price of good material of Dalbergia has also appeared loose. In the beginning of the year, Dahong Suanzhi old material with a length of 2m or more and a diameter of 30-40cm was quoted at around RMB 200,000 per ton, and it had fallen to about 160,000 tons per ton in May. Length 1.8-2.2m, diameter 25-30cm reported to 9-9.5 yuan / ton, compared with January 1-2 yuan / ton. In addition to the decline in the price of origin to a certain extent, the price of domestic Dalbergia rose lower, and the domestic economic environment is the key factor in the price decline of the Dalbergia chinensis. Analysts believe that the regulation and control of the property market in 2012 seriously affected the total market capacity of the mahogany furniture industry, which to some extent weighed on the market's rigid demand for mahogany furniture. As the main material of mahogany furniture, Dalbergia japonica cannot resist the impact of the sluggish market. In the past, downstream furniture merchants would appropriately stock materials to prepare for occasional needs, but this year due to the market's low demand for mahogany furniture. , The bulk purchase intention of the merchants is weak, mainly based on the use and purchase. In addition, although some furniture companies are interested in selling goods, due to the large number of finished products that are unmarketable and the cash flow is not coming, businesses will naturally not be able to purchase raw materials.

African safflower pear led the African log market, and the market outlook is not optimistic.

In the first half of 2012, due to the continued sluggish economic situation at home and abroad, the demand for African materials in downstream furniture, home improvement and other industries has also been difficult to boost. Under such circumstances, the Zhangjiagang region's inability to consume a large amount of African timber led to a serious inventory build-up. With the continuous entry of new African goods into the market, there is no doubt that the African log market has been "slower." As a result, the prices of many species of wood have continued to decrease. Among them, African saffron pears are one of the species that have fallen sharply. According to a survey conducted by the Yuzhu Wood Network reporter, from the beginning of May, the price of African saffron pears began to drop sharply. By June, the production area of ​​African saffron pears in Zhangjiagang was reported to 2500-3500 yuan/cubic meter, with Cameroon reporting to 2700. -4000 yuan/cubic meter, down by 1,000 yuan/cubic meter compared with March. However, the "red spot price" of African safflower pears still fails to attract buyers' active purchases, and most businesses still do not have obvious purchase intentions. Businesses reflected that it was not the downstream furniture factories who did not want to take goods, but because the external economic environment was too sluggish. Many furniture manufacturers had previously completed a large amount of finished furniture because they were difficult to sell. As a result, businesses will naturally not be able to purchase raw materials.

Due to the increasing pressure on inventory, following the African safflower pear, African logs such as Okan, Tali and so on have also made price adjustment measures, and the momentum is unprecedented. The price of Tali in Zhangjiagang was reported to be 2100-2300 yuan/cubic meter in June, down 800-1000 yuan/cubic meter from the beginning of the year, and Aucan reported to 2400-2800 yuan/cubic meter, down by 600-800 yuan/cubic meter. Man reported to 1700-2500 yuan / cubic meter, fell 500-600 yuan / cubic meter. The sang sang reported to 2800 yuan/cubic meter, down 300-400 yuan/cubic meter.

"You can really describe it as miserable," said the merchant.

Africa's Ke Tan is seriously unmarketable, and the possibility of substantial price adjustments is not ruled out in the second half of the year.

Influenced by the downturn in the overall market, the inventory of the African branch Tanabata market began to lower prices in March. In March, the African market in the Guangdong branch reported to 1.2-1.4 million yuan per ton, a decrease of 2000-4000 yuan compared with February. /Ton. However, even if timber merchants make significant concessions in price, downstream buyers still do not pay, and market transactions are deserted. In this regard, the wood dealers with relatively tight financial resources had to continue to make concessions on prices and expect to reduce operating pressure. By June, the Guangdong branch of the Africa Branch reported to 9,000 yuan to RMB 91,000 yuan per ton.

Market participants said that due to the current spot is sufficient, in the case of a serious shortage of buying gas, the African Ke Tan prices continue to decline in the risk, does not rule out some of the timber merchants to make "big dumps" initiative.