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The RMB exchange rate will climb after 6.5, and the analysis will continue to strengthen.
The RMB exchange rate rose again. On April 29, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was US$1 to RMB6.4990, an increase of 61 basis points from the previous trading day (6.5051), breaking through the important mark of 6.5000. For the first time since the exchange reform in July 2005, it broke through the 6.50 mark. Although the US dollar against the RMB exchange rate has risen slightly on the two trading days after the “May 1st†holiday, it seems that it is difficult to change the sharp rise of the RMB against the US dollar. Some analysts pointed out that the persistently weak US dollar index and the monetary policy orientation of anti-inflation with exchange rate instruments are the main driving force for the rapid transition of the RMB exchange rate to “6.50â€. Although the US dollar index has rebounded in the past two trading days after the US government announced the death of bin Laden, it is difficult to change the current weakening of the US dollar. In the short term, this may push the RMB, including the RMB. The non-US currency exchange rate continues to strengthen. Internal and external pressures continue to strengthen The data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center shows that the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar in April broke through six barriers of 6.55, 6.54, 6.53, 6.52, 6.51, and 6.50, and the acceleration of appreciation has been rare since the exchange reform. As of the end of April, the RMB has appreciated 1.90% in the first four months of the US dollar, with a monthly appreciation of 0.88% in April. The characteristics of accelerated appreciation since April are extremely obvious. The reason is that Sun Wei, an associate professor of the Department of International Economics and Trade at Peking University School of Economics, pointed out that the appreciation of the renminbi is a trend, and its root cause lies in the depreciation of the US dollar. With the steady recovery of the global economy, the dollar's hedging function has weakened; while emerging market countries and the euro zone have raised interest rates, the Fed has insisted on keeping interest rates close to zero, and the spread between the US dollar and other currencies has further widened; The US government debt problem is ridden. These factors have all caused the dollar to fall. Ding Zhijie, dean of the School of Finance of the University of International Business and Economics, analyzed that the balance of the state's foreign exchange reserves has reached more than 3 trillion US dollars, which has played an important supporting role in the rise of the RMB exchange rate. At present, China's imports are growing rapidly. Many of the imported commodities are bulk commodities such as iron ore and crude oil. Further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and increasing exchange rate flexibility can change the domestic sales price of imported goods and help slow down the input type. Inflationary pressure. The trend of going higher will not change in the short term. “The impact of the strong RMB exchange rate on the Chinese economy is generally positive, and the short-term is conducive to controlling inflation. The medium and long-term is conducive to transforming the development mode.†Bank of Communications (5.83, -0.11, -1.85%) Chief Economist Ping believes that the flexibility of exchange rate will bring some pressure to the coastal export industry, which will promote the upgrading of technology and innovative products to the central and western regions. At the same time, it will guide the allocation of resources from the export sector to the domestic demand sector such as the service industry to reduce the economy's exports. Over-reliance. “These all contribute to industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and transformation of economic development.†According to Lian Ping’s forecast, the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar will be 5%-7% this year. Ding Zhijie said: "The second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States will end as scheduled by the end of June this year. It is unlikely that a new round of quantitative easing will be introduced thereafter, which will help the dollar strengthen." He said that bin Laden was After the news of the killing was announced, the US dollar index showed a rapid rebound, indicating that all kinds of sporadic factors can also boost the dollar. However, due to the good fundamentals of China's economy, the RMB exchange rate will generally be relatively strong in the future. Sun Wei also believes that the renminbi will continue to appreciate in the future. She also reminds the public that when investing in trade and settlement in neighboring countries and regions, the renminbi should be used as much as possible in accordance with local laws. The international influence of the renminbi is good. Exchange rate reform needs to be gradual and controllable. Although the recent exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is expected to continue to be strong, it is the market consensus. However, Xie Taifeng, dean of the School of Finance of Capital University of Economics and Business, stressed that in view of the trend of the US dollar and the domestic economic situation, after breaking the 6.50 mark, the RMB against the US dollar. The appreciation of the value still needs to return to the "moderate" rhythm. Industrial Bank (28.36, -0.75, -2.58%) senior economist Lu political commissar analyzed that from the perspective of 2011, the reduction of trade surplus will become the norm, the external pressure of RMB appreciation will ease, and the appreciation will slow down. For the future RMB exchange rate policy, the central bank also stated in the “2011 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report†released on the 3rd that the next phase of the central bank will further improve the RMB exchange rate formation in accordance with the principles of initiative, controllability and graduality. The mechanism plays a fundamental role in the formation of exchange rates in the market. It adjusts with reference to a basket of currencies, enhances exchange rate flexibility, and maintains the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Xie Taifeng believes that from the past data, the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the faster increase of foreign exchange reserves, the more foreign exchange reserves will allow more speculative “hot money†to enter China, which will aggravate the import inflation situation and thus control inflation. And foreign exchange reserves, we must continue to implement a stable exchange rate policy. Economic commentator Ye Tan also suggested that it is necessary to firmly control the increase of the RMB in a certain range with the foreign exchange reserves in its hands. At the same time, accelerate the reform of the social security system in China, boost domestic demand, and avoid the negative impact of RMB appreciation on enterprises. .