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Reserve rate is raised again, interest rate hike may not be reduced
On the afternoon of June 14, the central bank announced that from June 20, 2011, the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions will be raised by 0.5 percentage points. This is the sixth increase this year. After the increase, the deposit reserve ratio of large financial institutions will reach 21.5%. In the morning, the May macroeconomic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the CPI rose 5.5% in May, a record high in 34 months. Or hedge liquidity "This announcement that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio has little to do with the macroeconomic data released today, mainly to hedge foreign exchange holdings, is a monthly hedging liquidity. Announced the increase in deposits on the day of the release of macroeconomic data. The gold rate indicates that the central bank’s policy may continue to tighten.†On the 14th, Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview with the China Economic Times reporter. In June, the open market has more than 600 billion yuan of funds, in addition to more foreign exchange, in addition to the intention to recover liquidity, the Nuoan Fund analysis said that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio is still to curb inflation, short-term inflation is still There is a driving force for the high. "The announcement of the increase in the deposit reserve ratio is a consideration for inflation. The priority is to use quantitative tools to regulate and control, and it is directly related to the macroeconomic data released in the morning." Li Dazhao, director of the Institute of Securities Research, said in an interview with this reporter. Da Mohua Xin Jijin commented on this reporter that the increase in the deposit reserve ratio instead of the market expected rate hike may be a trade-off between the central bank in controlling higher inflation and ensuring stable economic operation, and the overall monetary policy is relaxed. It is unlikely, but it may protect the economic vitality by reducing the risk weight of SME loans. Negative impact on the market “Upgrading the deposit reserve ratio has a negative impact on the market, and will exert pressure on the market rebound. The cumulative effect will have an impact on market capital tensions.†Li Dazhao said that the current market risks are mainly without growth support. On the high valuation stocks, large-scale risks have been released, and structural risks and structural opportunities coexist. The Good Buy Fund Research Center believes that raising the deposit reserve ratio will increase the tension of funds and push up the price of funds, which will have a negative impact on the stock market. At the same time, it is also negative news for bank stocks with a large index weight, which will drag down the stock index. Da Mo Hua Xin Fund said that due to the increase in deposit reserve ratio is better than the market's interest rate hike expectation, the market is expected to continue the rebound trend, but the market generally expects CPI may break 6% in June, should not expect too much for the market rebound . "The monetary policy contraction has come to an end, and the second half of the year will enter the policy wait-and-see period, so the A-share market adjustment market is also coming to an end." Noon Fund believes. Interest rate hike is expected or not reduced. Earlier, Li Xunlei expects to raise interest rates in June, and the rate hike will end this year. After the central bank announced the increase in the deposit reserve ratio, Li Xunlei said, "There may be interest rate hikes this month, and will not weaken the rate hike expectation because of the increase in the reserve ratio." Li Kang, chief economist of Xiangcai Securities, believes that The rate hike is already on the line. The possibility of a rate hike in June is very high, and the rate hike is a passive coping rate hike, mainly to curb inflationary pressures, especially inflation expectations. In general, monetary policy will continue to tighten. However, Li Dazhao does not expect to raise interest rates in the short term. "It is estimated that two tools will not be used together in the short term."