China's bearings will increase horizontal mergers and acquisitions in 2008

Guojin Securities' 4th quarter mechanical parts industry report believes that the integration of large and scattered domestic bearing market stocks is imperative, while the average growth rate of extra large and large bearings may exceed 20%. In 2010, the market size is expected to reach 26 billion yuan. .

Guojin Securities said that there are two research ideas: one is to choose bearings with high added value, because 80% of the bearing supply tends to be surplus, and 5% of the bearing demand is in short supply; the second is capable of focusing on Companies that acquire greater market share through mergers and acquisitions, because of the large and scattered domestic bearing market stock integration is imperative. The intersection of these two clues is an excellent enterprise with both intensive growth and extended expansion strength, and it is also the best variety to obtain excess investment income.

Due to strong demand in the electromechanical market, it is estimated that the industry will complete 8 billion sets of bearing production in 2007, achieving sales revenue of 76 billion yuan, corresponding output growth of 14%, and sales revenue growth of 23%. Guojin Securities expects that the bearing industry is expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 15% during the 11th Five-Year Plan period.

The output value of extra large and large bearings in the industry is about 20%, the gross profit margin is as high as 30-50%, and the compound growth rate for the five consecutive years is 21.71%. Driven by the rapid growth of major equipment manufacturing industry, large-scale CNC machine tools, railway vehicles, metallurgical mining equipment and other high-precision, high-speed, high-reliability large-scale bearings are in strong demand, and energy-saving and environmentally-friendly wind power bearings are in short supply. Guojin Securities expects that the average growth rate of these two categories of bearings may exceed 20%, and the market size in 2010 is expected to reach 26 billion yuan.

China's bearing industry has ranked third in the world in terms of scale. It is estimated that with the increase in industry concentration, the top 10 industries in 2010 will have a market share of about 30 billion yuan, of which about 10 billion yuan will be realized through mergers and acquisitions. Among them, large private enterprises will play an active role. It is expected that large private enterprises will achieve a growth rate of more than 30% through mergers and acquisitions.

Under the dual influence of supply and demand characteristics and market structure, the domestic bearing steel market is relatively stable. The price of bearing steel GCr15 in the first half of the year is generally maintained at the range of 4500-4700 yuan/ton. In the future, the price increase of metals such as chromium, nickel and molybdenum may promote There is an increase. It is estimated that the unit price of bearing steel will increase by 100 yuan, and the average gross profit margin of the industry will fall by 0.67 percentage points.

Large-scale bearings + large-scale private enterprises are reasonable choices to invest in the bearing industry at this stage in order to obtain excess returns.

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